Olympics: Brazil vs. Spain – prediction, team news, lineups
Spain Women will attempt to finish the Olympic group stage with a 100% record when they face Brazil Women at the Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux.
While Spain have already qualified for the quarter-finals, Brazil still have work to do to seal their place in the knockout rounds.
Match preview
Brazil began their 2024 Olympic campaign with a narrow 1-0 victory over Nigeria, with Gabi Nunes scoring the decisive goal to get her country off to a winning start.
Arthur Elias's side appeared to be on course to claim another win when Jhennifer opened the scoring in the 56th minute of Sunday's clash with Japan.
As it proved, Brazil were left with nothing to show for their efforts as Saki Kumagai netted a 92nd-minute penalty before Momoko Tanikawa scored a stunning winner to complete a dramatic turnaround.
Brazil will head into the final group match in third position with goals scored keeping them behind Japan, while they have a three-point cushion over Nigeria.
They will need to secure a top-two finish or one of the two best third-placed spots if they are to maintain their 100% record of reaching the knockout rounds at the Olympics, having progressed from the group stage in each of their previous seven appearances.
In contrast to their opponents, Spain have already secured their spot in the quarter-finals after taking maximum points from their first two matches in France.
La Roja, who are making their debut at the Olympics, began the tournament with a narrow 2-1 win over Japan before they left it late to clinch all three points in Sunday's meeting with Nigeria.
Two-time Ballon d'Or winner Alexia Putellas scored an 85th-minute free-kick to snatch all three points, helping Spain become the fourth women's team to win its first two matches on their Olympic debut.
After securing a spot in the knockout stages, La Roja will now be looking to clinch top spot with three points currently separating them from Japan and Brazil.
Spain will certainly fancy their chances of clinching three more points, having won 17 of their previous 20 matches in regulation time, including 10 wins in their last 11 games.
Brazil Olympic Games form: WL
Brazil form (all competitions): DWWWWL
Spain Olympic Games form: WW
Spain form (all competitions): WWLWWW
Brazil vs. Spain odds
After two wins in two games, Spain women enter the final round of the group stages as the clear favourties, with a 60.60% win probability. On the other hand Brazil Women have a 17.40% win probability in this match.
Brazil Women Odds: 19/4 – 17.40% probability
Draw Odds: 12/5 – 29.40% probability
Spain Women Odds: 13/20 – 60.60% probability
Spain have the best position ahead of this last round and they could be through even with a loss, while Brazil will likely have to win this match to get to the next stage. This is why we expect them to push hard and why both teams to score at 1/1 odds (50% probability) looks interesting.
Further on the goals market, we can see that the odds on over 2.5 total goals are 19/20, which implies a 51.30% probability, while under 2.5 total goals is priced the same.
Team News
Brazil are likely to be without the services of Corinthians defender Tamires, who was forced off in the tournament opener against Nigeria.
Tarciane, Ludmila and Jhennifer are all pushing for starting spots after featuring as half-time substitutes on Sunday.
Duda Sampaio may also be considered for a starting berth despite dropping down to the bench for the defeat to Japan.
As for Spain, Montse Tomo may take the opportunity to freshen up her side with a quarter-final spot already secured.
Laia Codina and Olga Carmona could be brought into the backline, while Patri Guijarro may feature in the middle of the park.
Real Madrid duo Athenea del Castillo and Eva Navarro are also in contention to start the final group game.
Brazil possible starting lineup: Lorena; Thais, Rafaelle, Tarciane; Antonia, Yaya, Duda, Yasmim; Ludmila, Marta, Jhennifer
Spain possible starting lineup: Coll; Batlle, Codina, Aleixandri, Carmona; Bonmati, Abelleira, Guijarro; Del Castillo, Navarro, Garcia
We say: Brazil 1-2 Spain
Both teams have seen their first two matches decided by one-goal margins, and we expect Wednesday's contest to be another close-fought affair.
However, Spain will ultimately be full of confidence after beginning the tournament with back-to-back victories, and we believe they will do enough to finish the group with a 100% record.
