Olympics: Brazil vs. Spain – prediction, team news, lineups
On Tuesday, Brazil Women will face world champions Spain Women in Marseille in the semi-finals of the 2024 Olympics.
The two sides recently faced off in the final round of group games, with Spain recording a 2-0 win over 10-player Brazil.
Match preview
Brazil had to settle for one of the best third-place spots after a win over Nigeria was followed by defeats against Japan and Spain.
As a result of their finishing position, the Copa America champions were presented with an almighty test against Olympic hosts France in Saturday’s quarter-final clash.
The Selecao ultimately rose to the challenge, with Lorena saving Sakina Karchaoui’s first-half penalty before Gabi Portilho went on to net an 82nd-minute winner.
Brazil are now looking forward to making their sixth appearance in the Olympic semi-finals as they continue to dream of clinching their first medal since claiming silver in 2004 and 2008.
Having failed to win their last three head-to-head meetings, Brazil will hope they can get the better of Spain for the first time since recording a narrow 2-1 victory in July 2017.
Spain may be making their Olympic debut, but they came into the tournament as one of the favourites to clinch gold.
La Roja eased through the group stage with victories over Japan, Nigeria and Brazil, before they were given a real scare in their quarter-final meeting with Colombia.
They were left with a mountain to climb after Mayra Ramirez and Leicy Santos scored a goal apiece to leave Colombia on the verge of pulling off a major shock.
However, Jenni Hermoso came off the bench to pull a goal back in the 79th minute, before Irene Paredes netted a 97th-minute equaliser, sending the tie to extra time and then penalties.
La Roja ultimately held their nerve from the spot, dispatching all four of their spot-kicks to progress to the semi-finals, where they will bid to keep their hopes alive of becoming the fifth different nation to win Olympic gold in the women’s football tournament.
Brazil Olympics form: WLLW
Brazil form (all competitions): WWWLLW
Spain Olympics form: WWWW
Spain form (all competitions): LWWWWW
Brazil vs. Spain odds
Looking at the odds for this match, we can clearly see that Spain Women are the expected winners with a 65.20% win probability, compared to the 16.70% win probability for Brazil Women.
Brazil Women Odds: 5/1 – 16.70% probability
Draw Odds: 3/1 – 25.00% probability
Spain Women Odds: 8/15 – 65.20% probability
So, if you're thinking of backing Spain and you want better odds, another option is to back Spain to lead at half time and win at the end at 13/10 odds and a 43.50%.
Meanwhile, looking at popular goal markets for this game, we can see that over 2.5 total goals is priced at 10/11, which is equal to a 52.40% probability. Consequently, under 2.5 total goals has odds of 4/5 and a 55.60% probability.
Team News
Brazil are still unable to call upon their all-time record goalscorer Marta, who will serve the second match of a two-game suspension she received following her dismissal against Spain in the group stage.
Real Madrid right-back Antonia is likely to miss the semi-final after she sat out the win over France due to an injury issue.
Rafaelle Souza was forced off in the second half of Saturday's quarter-final and is now set to be ruled out of Tuesday's semi-final clash.
Meanwhile, Spain midfielder Teresa Abelleira is in contention to start after coming off the bench in the opening stages of the second half against Colombia.
Hermoso may have to settle for a place on the bench despite making an impact in her substitute appearance on Saturday.
Montse Tome could keep faith with the front three of Athenea del Castillo, Mariona Caldentey and Salma Paralluelo.
Brazil possible starting lineup: Lorena; Thais, Tarciane, Lauren, Yasmim; Jheniffer, Duda, Vitoria, Adriana; Nunes, Portilho
Spain possible starting lineup: Coll; Batlle, Paredes, Aleixandri, Carmona; Bonmati, Abelleira, Putellas; Del Castillo, Caldentey, Paralluelo
We say: Brazil 1-2 Spain
Brazil produced a valiant display in the group-stage meeting between the two nations despite having to play the second half with 10 players.
We believe a determined Brazil side will trouble Spain in Tuesday's quarter-final, but we ultimately feel that Spain's extra quality will shine through to give them a narrow victory.
