Olympics: Colombia vs. Canada – prediction, team news, lineups
On Wednesday, Colombia Women will face Canada Women in the final round of group matches at the 2024 Olympics, with both sides looking to progress to the quarter-finals.
Colombia are sitting in top spot with three points to their name, while Canada are in third place with zero points after being hit with a six-point deduction for spying on a New Zealand training session.
Match preview
Having won one and lost one of their two matches, Colombia are sitting top of Group A due to their favourable goal difference over France, while they enjoy a three-point cushion over Canada and New Zealand.
They kicked off the tournament with a narrow 3-2 defeat to France, before they produced a positive response in Sunday's second group game against New Zealand.
Marcela Restrepo and Leicy Santos grabbed a goal apiece to lead their country to a 2-0 win, representing their first-ever victory at an Olympic games.
Colombia will not dwell on that success though, as they look to progress to the knockout stages of a global tournament for the second year in a row after reaching the quarter-finals of last year's World Cup.
Wednesday's fixture will be the first meeting between the two countries since Colombia recorded a 1-0 victory in the Pan American games in July 2015.
Prior to their first game against New Zealand, it emerged that members of the Canadian staff had used a drone to spy on New Zealand's closed training session, leading to an investigation by FIFA.
The Canucks went on to claim a 2-1 victory over the Football Fearns, before FIFA announced the Canadian team would be handed a six-point deduction for the group phase.
Canada head coach Bev Priestman, who had already returned home, was banned from “taking part in any football-related activity” for 12 months, while the Canadian federation was given a fine of around $226,000 (£175, 824).
Despite all the controversy, the players still managed to show great character to fight back from a goal down against France on Sunday, with Jessie Fleming scoring a 58th-minute equaliser before Vanessa Gilles netted a winner in the 12th-minute of stoppage time.
With three points separating them from the top two, the Canucks still have the chance to maintain their 100% record of reaching the Olympic knockout rounds, having progressed from the group stage at each of the last four tournaments.
Colombia Olympic Games form: LW
Colombia form (all competitions): WWWLLW
Canada Olympic Games form: WW
Canada form (all competitions): LWDWWW
Colombia vs. Canada odds
Even after they were deducted six points as a punishment for spying on other teams, Canada Women still have a chance to get out of the group stages after winning both of their games so far. So, they are favoured to win in the last round as well, with a 50.00% win probability, while Colombia Women have a win probability of 26.70%.
Colombia Women Odds: 11/4 – 26.70% probability
Draw Odds: 11/4 – 26.70% probability
Canada Women Odds: 1/1- 50.00% probability
Based on these odds, we can clearly expect a close match and one market that reflects this is both teams to score with 7/10 odds and a 58.80% probability.
Looking at other goals markets, we can also see that the odds on over 2.5 total goals are 3/4, which is the same as a 57.10% probability, while under 2.5 total goals is priced at 11/10, which implies a 47.60% probability.
Team News
Team News
Chelsea forward Mayra Ramirez is set to return to Colombia’s starting lineup after serving a one-match suspension.
After seeing his team keep a clean sheet on Sunday, Angelo Marsiglia is likely to stick with a back four of Carolina Arias, Daniela Arias, Jorelyn Carabali and Manuela Vanegas.
Ilana Izquierdo came into the side for the win over New Zealand, and she is now poised to retain her place for the final group match.
As for Canada, they could without the services of Jayde Riviere, who has missed the first two matches with an ankle injury.
The reigning Olympic champions are expected to line up with Jade Rose, Vanessa Gilles and Kadiesha Buchanan as their three centre-backs.
Aston Villa forward Adriana Leon is pushing for a starting spot after featuring as a half-time substitute against France.
Colombia possible starting lineup: Tapia; C Arias, D Arias, Carabali, Vanegas; Restrepo, Izquierdo; Usme, Santos, Caicedo; Ramirez
Canada possible starting lineup: Sheridan; Rose, Gilles, Buchanan; Lawrence, Quinn, Fleming, Awujo, Carle; Leon, Huitema
We say: Colombia 1-2 Canada
Although their Olympic campaign has been marred in controversy, the Canadian players have shown great character to produce two strong performances to claim maximum points, and we think they will conjure up another solid display to edge out Colombia in Sunday's contest.
