Olympics: USA vs. Germany – prediction, team news, lineups
On Sunday, four-time Olympic champions USA Women will go head-to-head with 2016 gold medal winners Germany Women in Marseille.
USA and Germany both kicked off the competition with 3-0 victories, beating Zambia and Australia, respectively.
Match preview
After beginning her tenure with four friendlies, new USA boss Emma Hayes took charge of her first competitive game in Thursday’s Olympic opener against Zambia.
The former Chelsea manager saw Trinity Rodman open the scoring before Mallory Swanson netted a quickfire brace to establish a three-goal lead inside 25 minutes.
However, Hayes may have been slightly frustrated that her side failed to add to their tally despite Zambia being reduced to 10 players in the 34th minute.
Nevertheless, the USA head coach will be pleased to have started her tenure with a five-game unbeaten run, having seen her side keep clean sheets in each of those contests.
The Stars and Stripes will be looking to produce another strong defensive display in their first Olympic meeting with Germany since claiming a 2-1 win in 2004.
After failing to qualify for Tokyo 2020, Germany are appearing at the Olympics for the first time since winning gold in 2016.
They marked their return to the Olympic stage with a dominant performance in Thursday’s opener against Australia, with Marina Hegering, Lea Schuller and Jule Brand all getting on the scoresheet in a 3-0 victory.
Impressively, Horst Hrubesch’s side have now won seven of their last eight matches, scoring at least three goals in six of those fixtures.
After reaching the knockout rounds in their last four appearances, Germany are already well set to continue that record as they look to avoid their first group-stage exit since the 1996 Olympics.
However, they will be aware of the tough task that awaits them on Sunday, having lost five of their previous six matches against the USA.
USA Olympic Games form: W
USA form (all competitions): WWWWDW
Germany Olympic Games form: W
Germany form (all competitions): WWWLWW
USA vs. Germany odds
This will be one of the most interesting duels at the tournament yet, and the odds also suggest so, with the USA women still being the expected winners with a 44.40% probability and German women not far behind with a 30.30% probability to win.
USA Women Odds: 5/4 – 44.40% probability
Draw Odds: 12/5 – 29.40% probability
Germany Women Odds: 23/10 – 30.30% probability
Given that both of these teams were convincing in the first round and scored three goals each, we checked the goals market for this game and saw that over 2.5 total goals has odds of 49/50, which is the same as a 50.50% probability.
Furthermore, both teams to score is priced at 3/4 (57.10% probability), which we feel are good odds. Meanwhile, if you don't expect this game to have a lot of goals, under 2.5 total goals is priced at 17/20, which is the same as a 54.10% probability.
Team News
USA will have to assess Jaedyn Shaw’s fitness after the forward was omitted from Thursday’s squad due to a leg injury.
There are also doubts surrounding the availability of Sophia Smith, who was forced off in the closing stages of the first half against Zambia.
Lydia Williams could be given the chance to start if Smith is unable to prove her fitness in time for Sunday’s fixture.
As for Germany, Hrubesch is likely to select an unchanged lineup as long as there are no fresh injury concerns.
Goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger will be looking to claim another clean sheet, having recorded shutouts in her last two international matches.
At the opposite end of the pitch, Schuller will be hoping to continue her fine form after scoring five goals across her previous five appearances for Germany.
USA possible starting lineup: Naeher; Fox, Girma, Davidson, Dunn; Horan, Coffey, Lavelle; Rodman, Williams, Swanson
Germany possible starting lineup: Berger; Gwinn, Hendrich, Hegering, Linder; Brand, Minge, Nusken, Buhl; Popp, Schuller
We say: USA 1-1 Germany
The USA may have won five of their previous six head-to-head meetings, but we think they may have to settle for a draw when they face a Germany side that has lost just two of their previous 14 matches.
