Olympics: USA vs. Germany – prediction, team news, lineups

On Tuesday, USA Women will go head-to-head with Germany Women in an Olympic semi-final at the Groupama Stadium.

The Stars and Stripes will be looking to beat Germany for the second time in the tournament after cruising to a 4-1 victory when the two sides met in the group stage.

Match preview

The USA cruised through the group stage of the 2024 Olympics, beating Zambia, Germany and Australia to top Group B and set up a quarter-final clash with Japan.

The four-time Olympic champions were ultimately given a tough test in their last-eight outing, playing out a goalless 90 minutes before Trinity Rodman produced a moment of magic in stoppage time.

The attacker fired an unstoppable left-foot strike into the top corner to clinch the win and move the USWNT into their 15th major tournament semi-final.

Saturday’s victory also extended Emma Hayes’s unbeaten start as USA boss to eight matches (W7, D1), ensuring her side will carry significant momentum into Tuesday’s fixture in Lyon.

The USA are now set to face Germany in the last four of a major tournament for a fifth time, including one previous semi-final meeting in the Olympics, which saw the Star and Stripes claim a 2-1 victory on their journey to winning gold in 2004.

Germany finished in second place behind the USA in Group B, leaving them with a tough quarter-final clash against the reigning Olympic champions Canada.

After playing out a goalless draw in 120 minutes of action, Germany managed to prevail in a penalty shootout thanks to the heroics of goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger.

The former Chelsea shot-stopper made crucial stops to deny Ashley Lawrence and Adriana Leon, before she stepped up to dispatch the winning penalty. 

DFB-Frauen previously appeared in the Olympic semi-finals on four occasions, losing at this stage of the competition in 2000, 2004 and 2008, before they beat Canada in the semi-finals of their gold-medal winning campaign in 2016.

Germany will have their work cut out to reach the final, having lost six of their last seven head-to-head meetings (W1), including a 4-1 win in the recent group meeting between the two nations.

USA Olympics form: WWWW

USA form (all competitions): WDWWWW

Germany Olympics form: WLWW

Germany form (all competitions): LWWLWW

USA vs. Germany odds

With a 51.30% win probability the USA Women are the expected winners in upcoming semi-final, while Germany Women have a 25.00% win probability, so they don't have a big chance to get to the final according to the bookies.

USA Women Odds: 19/20 – 51.30% probability

Draw Odds: 5/2 – 28.60% probability

Germany Women Odds: 3/1 – 25.00% probability

Meanwhile, if we check out the most popular goal markets for this duel, we can see that under 2.5 total goals has odds of 5/6, which is the same as a 54.50% probability. On the other hand, we can see that over 2.5 total goals comes with 21/20 odds and a 48.80% probability.

Another interesting goals market to consider is for both teams to score at 5/6 odds, which implies a 54.50% probability.

Team News

USA defender Tierna Davidson will have to be assessed ahead of the semi-final, having been forced to miss the last two matches due to injury.

Sam Coffey is available following a one-match suspension and is set to return to feature in a midfield trio alongside Rose Lavelle and Lindsey Horan.

Rodman will continue to provide one of the USA’s main attacking threats after scoring three goals in four matches at the Olympics.

As for Germany, Horst Hrubesch could be tempted to stick with the same side that started the semi-final clash with Canada.

Kathrin Hendrich and Marina Hegering will continue to operate in central defence after shaking off their fitness concerns ahead of Saturday’s fixture.

At the opposite end of the pitch, Bayern Munich’s Lea Schuller will continue to pose one of Germany’s main goal threats, having scored three times during the tournament.

USA possible starting lineup: Naeher; Fox, Girma, Sonnett, Dunn; Lavelle, Coffey, Horan; Rodman, Smith, Swanson

Germany possible starting lineup: Berger; Gwinn, Hendrich, Hegering, Rauch; Brand, Minge, Popp, Buhl; Nusken, Schuller

We say: USA 1-1 Germany

USA may have cruised to victory when the two sides met in the group stage, but we expect Tuesday's contest to be a much tighter affair.

While we think the game could be drawn after 90 minutes, we believe the USA may outlast their opponents to claim another extra-time victory.