Spain Women vs. Japan Women – prediction, team news, lineups
World champions Spain Women will go toe-to-toe with Japan Women in Thursday’s encounter at the Stade de la Beaujoire – Louis Fonteneau.
La Roja are set to make their Olympic debut, while Japan are preparing to make their sixth appearance in the competition.
Match previews
Last year, Spain clinched their first trophy in women’s football with a 2-1 victory over England in the 2023 World Cup final.
La Roja went on to claim another piece of silverware earlier this year when they won the inaugural edition of the UEFA Women's Nations League.
They then turned their attention to Euro 2025 qualifying, where they won five of their six matches to top a group featuring Denmark, Belgium and the Czech Republic.
With a place in Switzerland secured, Spain will now attempt to become the fifth different country to win the women’s football event at the Olympics.
La Roja will be determined to get off to a positive start on Thursday, especially as they look to avenge the 4-0 defeat they suffered to Japan in the group stage of the 2023 World Cup.
While Japan may have topped their World Cup group, their journey came to an end with a 2-1 defeat to Sweden in the quarter-finals.
They will hope to go further in this competition as they go in search of their first Olympic medal since winning silver at the London games in 2012.
On that occasion, Japan claimed knockout-round victories over Brazil and France, before they suffered a narrow 2-1 loss to the USA in the final.
Japan failed to qualify for the next Olympics in 2016, but they were involved in their home tournament in 2021, progressing from the group before losing 3-1 to Sweden.
In preparation for the Paris games, Futoshi Ikeda’s side have been involved in four friendlies, which has seen them claim consecutive wins over New Zealand, cruise to a 4-0 win over Ghana and play out a 1-1 draw with Colombia.
Spain Women form (all competitions): WWWWLW
Japan Women form (all competitions): LLWWWD
Spain Women vs. Japan Women odds
As expected, the bookmakers see Spain Women as the more likely winners in this match and their win probability based on the odds is 64.50%, while the Japanese team have a 17.40% win probability.
Spain Women Odds: 11/20 – 64.50% probability
Draw Odds: 18/5 – 21.70% probability
Japan Women Odds: 19/4 – 17.40% probability
If you believe in Spain and want to back them to win after leading at half time, you can expect to find odds of 11/8 on most sites, which is the same as a 42.10% probability.
Meanwhile, the bookies aren't too sure whether they can expect a lot of goals here, with the odds for over 2.5 total goals set at 7/10 (58.80% probability) and for under 2.5 total goals at 6/5, which implies a 45.50% probability.
Team News
Patri Guijarro has returned to the Spain squad nearly two years after declaring herself unavailable as part of a dispute between 15 players and the Royal Spanish Football Federation.
Guijarro could be joined in midfield by two of her Barcelona teammates Aitana Bonmati and Alexia Putellas.
Another Barcelona player, Salma Paralluelo, is poised to start in the frontline alongside the Real Madrid duo of Athenea del Castillo and Eva Navarro.
As for Spain’s opponents, their squad contains seven players who ply their trade in the Women’s Super League, while the rest of their 18-player group plays for clubs in Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden and the USA.
Ikeda is likely to line up with a back five of Risa Shimizu, Hana Takahashi, Saki Kumagai, Moeka Minami and Hikaru Kitagawa.
At the opposite end of the pitch, Utah Royals forward Mina Tanaka could be given the responsibility of leading the line.
Spain Women possible starting lineup: Coll; Batlle, Codina, Aleixandri, Carmona; Bonmati, Guijarro, Putellas; Del Castillo, Navarro, Paralluelo
Japan Women possible starting lineup: Yamashita; Shimizu, Takahashi, Kumagai, Minami, Kitagawa; Miyazawa, Hasegawa, Fujino, Nagano; Tanaka
We say: Spain Women 2-1 Japan Women
Japan produced a tactical masterclass to beat Spain 4-0 with around 23% possession when the two nations locked horns at last year's World Cup.
We expect Spain to dominate the ball again, but this time, we think La Roja will make their possession count to claim a narrow win.
