The mid-year Test season is upon us and England have made the trip south to take on New Zealand in a two-Test series, with the first match kicking off in Dunedin on Saturday.
The All Blacks have not played against England on home turf since 2014, when they secured a 3-0 series clean-sweep, including a close 28-27 victory here at Forsyth Barr Stadium.
Match preview
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These juggernauts of international rugby have locked horns 43 times since 1905, and New Zealand have been the dominant side by some distance, winning 33 of those Tests, while the most recent ended in an exhilarating 25-25 draw at Twickenham Stadium in 2022.
However, the All Blacks are in a transitional period as they bid farewell to all of Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith and Dane Coles following their Rugby World Cup final defeat to South Africa last year, which was also the last time the side played an international match.
It is not just on-field that the All Blacks are undergoing change, though, as this will also be the first match as head coach for Scott Robertson, who has already ruffled a few feathers by appointing Scott Barrett as captain ahead of World Rugby Player of the Year Ardie Savea.
The new boss, who has been very successful at Super Rugby level, was widely considered an unexpected selection, given that while some other nations change head coaches like clockwork, New Zealand have only appointed four head coaches in the last two decades and Robertson is the first with no international-level experience.
Nevertheless, the former Crusaders coach has a side packed with talent and experience, and his side have an excellent record against this opponent at home, winning 13 of the last 15 matches against them on home soil.
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Meanwhile, England rugby has been up on the up since their Calcutta Cup defeat early doors at the Six Nations, where they did not do incredibly well but did make major strides forward as the tournament progressed, taking France within a few points and beating Ireland at home.
Indeed, there has been a quiet confidence building within Steve Borthwick's squad since denying the Shamrocks a second consecutive grand slam, and that would have been given another boost during their semi-final run at the World Cup last year where they came up only a point short of the Springboks.
England, now playing a more expansive style and with a fresh attacking mindset with Marcus Smith at flyhalf, will arrive in the Southern Hemisphere with momentum as well after securing a thumping 52-17 victory over Japan and former coach Eddie Jones in Tokyo on June 22.
However, while the Red Roses will hope to tear up Robertson's best-laid plans over the course of the two-test series, it does seem unlikely given their record in the country. Since a 15-13 win in Wellington in 2003, England have lost all seven Tests across their last three tours.
New Zealand form (all competitions):
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
England form (all competitions):
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
Team News
As mentioned, Robertson has already made a few eyebrow-raising decisions since arriving, perhaps none more so than relegating Beauden Barrett to the bench in favour of Stephen Perofeta, who has three Test caps to his name.
Chiefs flanker Samipeni Finau earns his second Test cap, set to start on the blindside, while TJ Perenara takes over at scrumhalf from Aaron Smith, as Cam Roigard recovers from a knee issue.
Joe Marler and Will Stuart have been selected to start in England's front row for the first Test, marking the only changes to the team that defeated Japan 52-17 in Tokyo. They will replace Bevan Rodd and Dan Cole respectively.
With George Ford out injured and Owen Farrell no longer in the Test-rugby picture, Fin Smith will back up Marcus Smith at fly-half, while Tom Curry and Theo Dan also have to settle for spots on the bench.
New Zealand starting lineup: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele'a, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Dalton Papali'i, 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa'i, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barrett
England starting lineup: 15 George Furbank, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 11 Tommy Freeman, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George-captain, 1 Joe Marler
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Dan Coles, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Ben Spencer, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Ollie Sleightholme
We say: New Zealand 28-19 England
New Zealand are a side in transition while England are definitely a side on an upward trajectory, and those factors combined suggest that this could be a match decided by a very fine margin.
However, beating New Zealand on home soil is not something that happens too often, and while the Red Roses will keep this one interesting, we feel the All Blacks will edge them to victory.
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Devesh Jaganath
