New Zealand and Italy will face off this Friday evening in the 2023 Rugby World Cup at the Groupama Stadium in what will be a crucial match in Pool A.
The All Blacks were heavily backed to qualify from this group along with France. However, they come into this one behind the Italians in the standings after the first two matches.
Match preview
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New Zealand got their World Cup campaign started with a fairly average performance against France in the opening match of the tournament and are now in a nervy position, currently on five points after two matches.
However, they bounced back in the best way possible last week when they recorded a resounding victory over Namibia, beating the side from Southern Africa 71-3 and scoring an impressive 11 tries in the match.
The All Blacks were far too strong for the Welwitschia's as they secured the bonus point inside the first half-hour of the match and went into the break 38-3 in the lead before adding another 33 unanswered points in the second half.
That result would have helped their confidence after being outplayed in their first game, but Ian Foster will be fully aware that his side are in for a much more difficult encounter this time and will need a win to keep their hopes of reaching the knockout stages alive.
While the Italians have looked good up to this point, the All Blacks have an excellent record in this fixture, winning each of the 15 meetings between the nations in the past, with their last match ending 47-9 in favour of the three-time champions.
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Meanwhile, Italy are the side that have all the momentum coming into this fixture, and they will be hoping to turn that confidence into what would be their first win over the All Blacks in history.
If they were to manage that feat, Italy would be guaranteed a place in the knockout rounds, though going up against New Zealand is never a match that any team can go into expecting to dominate.
The Azzurri had the most favourable draw of the 'big three' teams in this group and took advantage of their fortune by claiming back-to-back wins, beating Namibia 52-8 and overcoming Uruguay 38-17 in their first two matches.
While the game against Namibia was a fairly straightforward one, Los Teros proved to be a tricky opponent and threatened to cause one of the biggest upsets of the tournament when they led Italy 17-7 at the half-time whistle.
However, Kieran Crowley's half-time speech seemed to light the fire under his side, as they came out flying after the break and powered home to a 38-17 victory, scoring 31 unanswered points in the second period alone.
New Zealand Rugby World Cup form:
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Italy Rugby World Cup form:
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Italy form (all competitions):
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Team News
Shannon Frizell, Jordie Barrett, and Tyrel Lomax are returning to the starting 15, having recovered from injuries, while captain Sam Cane will be among the substitutes.
Ethan De Groot received a red card late in the match against Namibia and will miss this match as well as the final group-stage match against Uruguay next week.
Samuel Whitelock starts on the bench, and if he features in the match, he will make his 149th appearance for the All Blacks, making him New Zealand's all-time highest cap holder.
Crowley has included Dino Lamb, Stephen Varney, and Luca Morisi in the starting lineup, while Niccolo Cannone has been moved to the bench, and Alessandro Garbisi and Lorenzo Pani have been omitted from the squad.
Tommaso Allan returns in the number 15 jersey, and the elder Paolo Garbisi will play at fly-half next to Varney in the halves pairing.
New Zealand starting lineup: 15. Beauden Barrett, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. Jordie Barrett, 11. Mark Tele'a, 10. Richie Mo'unga, 9. Aaron Smith, 8. Ardie Savea, 7. Dalton Papali'i, 6. Shannon Frizell, 5. Scott Barrett, 4. Brodie Retallick, 3. Nepo Laulala, 2. Codie Taylor, 1. Ofa Tu'ungafasi
Replacements: 16. Dane Coles, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Tyrel Lomax, 19. Samuel Whitelock, 20. Sam Cane, 21. Cam Roigard, 22. Damian McKenzie, 23. Anton Lienert-Brown
Italy starting lineup: 15. Tommaso Allan, 14. Ange Capuozzo, 13. Juan Ignacio Brex, 12. Luca Morisi, 11. Monty Ioane, 10. Paolo Garbisi, 9. Stephen Varney, 8. Lorenzo Cannone, 7. Michele Lamaro (c), 6. Sebastian Negri, 5. Federico Ruzza, 4. Dino Lamb, 3. Marco Riccioni, 2. Giacomo Nicotera, 1. Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16. Hame Faiva, 17. Ivan Nemer, 18. Simone Ferrari, 19. Niccolo Cannone, 20. Manuel Zuliani, 21. Toa Halafihi, 22. Martin Page-Relo, 23. Paolo Odogwu
Head To Head
The All Blacks and Italy crossed paths for the first time during the first Rugby World Cup in 1987, when New Zealand emerged victorious with a commanding 70-6 win at Eden Park. Over the years, these two teams have engaged in 15 Test matches, with New Zealand emerging triumphant in each contest, boasting an average margin of victory of 51 points.
While they have found themselves in the same pool in five of the eight Rugby World Cup tournaments held thus far, these sides only faced off four times due to the cancellation of their scheduled meeting in the 2019 tournament, prompted by Typhoon Hagibis.
We say: New Zealand 38-12 Italy
While many would agree that Italy probably have their best team ever in this World Cup, they still are the weakest of the Six Nations teams and are likely to struggle against the Rugby Championship winners.
Despite not being at their absolute best, we feel the All Blacks will get the job done here by 20+ points.
No Data Analysis info
Devesh Jaganath
