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Preview: Brandon Nakashima vs. Tommy Paul - prediction, form, head-to-head

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Vienna Open first-round match between Brandon Nakashima and Tommy Paul, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Fresh off his recent victory in Stockholm, Tommy Paul hopes the momentum from that success is advantageous when he takes on countryman Brandon Nakashima in Wednesday's first-round match at the Vienna Open.

Paul has never beaten Nakashima on the ATP Tour, recently losing in three sets at the Masters event in Canada, and the ATP Finals-chasing player aims to snap that losing run in Austria.


Match preview

Brandon Nakashima in action at the Japan Open on September 27, 2024© Imago

Although he ranks below America's No. 2 player, Nakashima enters Wednesday's battle with Paul with the psychological edge, having never lost to the 27-year-old.

The 23-year-old recently defeated the four-time Tour-level champion in three sets in Canada and aims to retain his undefeated run in this all-American tussle.

The world No. 38 had a mixed Asian swing, exiting early in Tokyo and Shanghai following a run to the semi-final in Hangzhou before losing to veteran Marin Cilic.

Even though those defeats in Japan and China were followed by another straight-set loss against Stanislas Wawrinka in Stockholm, Nakashima hopes to snap his losing run against an opponent he fares well against.

He enters Wednesday's match on a three-match winning sequence in all-American battles, beating Paul in Canada, Taylor Fritz in Cincinnati and Frances Tiafoe in Tokyo, and he aims to record a fourth on the trot.

Tommy Paul pictured at the Japan Open on September 28, 2024© Imago

Riding high after defeating Grigor Dimitrov in Stockholm, Paul hopes to become the first American player to beat Nakashima since Ben Shelton got the better of the 23-year-old on home turf in July.

The 27-year-old may not possess Shelton's booming serve, but he enters the encounter in high spirits after a third ATP Tour title of 2024 and fourth overall.

That triumph was the world No. 12's second in the ATP 250 event in Sweden, making him the fourth player to win at least three titles in 2024 after Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Berrettini.

With a maiden appearance at the ATP Finals a possibility, Paul hopes to notch a first success over Nakashima to give himself the best chance of a deep run in Vienna and being in the top eight before the event in Turin.


Head To Head

Masters 1000 Canada (2024) - Round of 32: Nakashima 6-2 6-7(5) 6-1

Lyon (2023) - Quarter-final: Nakashima 6-3 7-6(4)

's-Hertogenbosch (2022) - Round of 32: Nakashima 6-7(4) 7-6(5) 7-6(2)

Nakashima holds a 3-0 lead over Paul, possibly making him the favourite against his higher-ranked opponent.

The 23-year-old has also defeated the four-time Tour-level champion on every surface in the last two years, further highlighting why observers give him the psychological edge in Wednesday's Vienna meeting.


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We say: Paul to win in three sets

Despite the difficulty of replicating top performances in consecutive weeks, Paul's confidence from his Stockholm win and ATP Finals ambition should help him defeat Nakashima and end his losing streak against his fellow American.

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