Felix Auger-Aliassime and Andrey Rublev will lock horns for the sixth time in their respective careers on Sunday, with the 2024 Madrid Open trophy up for grabs in the Spanish capital.
Aliassime reached the final after Jiri Lehecka was forced to retire from their semi-final due to a back problem, while Rublev navigated his way past Taylor Fritz in the final four.
Match preview
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Auger-Aliassime's progression to the Madrid Open final has been interesting, as he has been involved in two retirements and a walkover, with the 23-year-old benefitting from injury issues for his opponents.
The world number 35 did see his first and second-round contests go the distance, overcoming Yoshihito Nishioka and Adrian Mannarino respectively to progress to round three.
Jakub Mensik was forced to retire early in the second set, though, due to injury, before Auger-Aliassime put in an excellent performance in the round of 16, beating Casper Ruud 6-4 7-5.
Since the last-16 contest, Auger-Aliassime has played just six games, as he was given a walkover in the quarter-finals due to a troublesome hip problem for Jannik Sinner, before Lehecka was unable to shake off a back problem when the two were level at 3-3 in their semi-final.
The Canadian, who has won five singles titles on the ATP tour, will enter this match as the underdog, having struggled against Rublev in the past, but he produced a standout performance against Ruud in the round of 16 and will certainly be confident of causing his opponent issues on Sunday.
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Rublev, meanwhile, has had to complete all five of his matches at the tournament to progress to the final, with his journey starting in the second round, having received a bye in the first round.
Facundo Bagnis and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina were beaten in the second round and third round respectively, before the Russian overcame Tallon Griekspoor in the round of 16 courtesy of a 6-2 6-3 success.
The world number eight then produced an excellent performance against Carlos Alcaraz, recording a 4-6 6-3 6-2 victory to progress to the semi-finals, where he beat Fritz 6-4 6-3.
Rublev, who has won 15 ATP Tour singles titles, has reached the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open but is yet to progress further than the final eight in a Grand Slam.
The Russian's serve and forehand have been particularly impressive in Madrid, and there will be pressure on him to triumph this weekend against his Canadian opponent.
Tournament so far
Felix Auger-Aliassime:
First round: vs. Yoshihito Nishioka 4-6 6-1 6-4
Second round: vs. Adrian Mannarino 6-0 6-4
Third round: vs. Jakub Mensik 6-1 1-0r
Round of 16: vs. Casper Ruud 6-4 7-5
Quarter-final: vs. Jannik Sinner (walkover)
Semi-final: vs. Jiri Lehecka 3-3r
Andrey Rublev:
Second round: vs. Facundo Bagnis 6-1 6-4
Third round: vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6[10] 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 6-2 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 4-6 6-3 6-2
Semi-final: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-3
Head To Head
Umag (2018) - Round of 16: Rublev wins 6-4 6[4]-7 6-3
Adelaide (2020) - Semi-final: Rublev wins 7-6[5] 6-7[7] 6-4
Rotterdam (2022) - Semi-final: Auger-Aliassime wins 6-7[5] 6-4 6-2
Marseille (2022) - Final: Rublev wins 7-5 7-6[4]
Rotterdam (2024) - Round of 16: Rublev wins 3-6 7-6[6] 7-5
Rublev has certainly enjoyed the better of the previous meetings between the two, boasting a 4-1 lead in the overall head-to-head record.
Auger-Aliassime's only success over Rublev came in Rotterdam in 2022, but he has lost his last two match-ups with Sunday's opponent, including when they locked horns in Rotterdam again earlier this year.
Indeed, Rublev triumphed in the last-16 stage of the competition, but all five of their previous meetings have been competitive affairs, with four of them going to three sets.
Rublev's most famous win over Auger-Aliassime came in 2022 in Marseille, when he recorded a 7-5 7-6[4] victory to win the 2022 Open 13 Provence.
We say: Rublev to win in three sets
Rublev is the favourite for Sunday's final, but he has played a lot more tennis in the tournament than Auger-Aliassime, and it remains to be seen whether that has an impact in this encounter.
Auger-Aliassime should be good enough to claim a set on Sunday, but we are expecting Rublev to have too much for his opponent, backing the world number eight to secure the trophy in three sets.
Matt Law
