ATP Tour

Preview: Nuno Borges vs. Rafael Nadal - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter

Published: July 20 2024 | 17:22

Last updated: July 21 2024 | 22:39

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Swedish Open final between Rafael Nadal and Nuno Borges, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Within touching distance of a first ATP Tour singles crown in over two years, Rafael Nadal takes on Portuguese seventh seed Nuno Borges in Sunday's Swedish Open final in Bastad.

The 38-year-old pulled off another mesmerising fightback to see off Duje Ajdukovic in a semi-final three-setter, while Borges enjoyed a more straightforward beating of Thiago Agustin Tirante.

Match preview

Rafael Nadal pictured at the Swedish Open on July 18, 2024 © Imago

Just like London buses, Nadal - who has not won a top-level title since the 2022 French Open - could have travelled home from Bastad with two honours to his name, but the Spaniard has now withdrawn from his doubles run with Casper Ruud, and unsurprisingly so.

Nadal's three-set spectacular against Mariano Navone in the quarter-finals - which went on for almost four hours - will no doubt go down as one of the matches of the season so far, and the 22-time Grand Slam winner was also up against it during Saturday's semi with Ajdukovic.

Another player who has made great strides on clay in recent months, the Croatian qualifier initially overwhelmed Nadal with some sensational backhand shots, but as mistakes began to creep into Ajdukovic's game, a composed Nadal capitalised expertly to triumph 4-6 6-3 6-4.

Thanks to some terrific defensive work, some wonderful forehand winners and a handful of perfectly-executed drop shots, Nadal reached an astonishing 131st top-level championship match, and his first since conquering Roland-Garros for the 14th time in June 2022.

Only one of Nadal's last 13 ATP Tour/Grand Slam finals has seen the Spaniard condemned to the runners-up prize - losing to Taylor Fritz in the final of Indian Wells two years ago - and should he reign supreme on Swedish clay on Sunday, singles title number 93 would have been secured.

Nuno Borges reacts at the Swedish Open on July 20, 2024 © Imago

Nadal seeks another Scandinavian title 19 years on from winning his first and only Swedish Open to date - defeating Tomas Berdych in the 2005 final, appropriately also in three sets - but his more youthful foe has enjoyed a simpler cruise through to the showpiece.

Barring a horrendous start against fellow Portuguese Henrique Rocha in the second round, seventh seed Borges has put his opponents to the sword in straight sets, overcoming Agustin Tirante 6-3 6-4 to set up a glamour tie with Nadal.

Borges needed just one hour and nine minutes to sink his Argentinian counterpart, whom he shared three consecutive breaks with in the second set before coolly holding to love while serving for the match, thereby reaching his maiden ATP Tour singles final.

The 27-year-old's only top-level title so far came in the men's doubles at the 2022 Estoril Open, but the 2024 campaign has already been one of astounding progress for Borges, who achieved his best-ever Grand Slam result by reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open in January.

As well as striking 16 winners to see off Tirante, Borges committed a mere six unforced errors throughout the duration of his semi-final and will no doubt need to maintain such a clean streak if he is to inflict a 39th final defeat upon his legendary foe.

Tournament so far

Nuno Borges:

First round: vs. Andrea Pellegrino 6-2 7-6[3]
Second round: vs. Henrique Rocha 1-6 6-4 6-0
Quarter-final: vs. Timofey Skatov 6-4 6-3
Semi-final: vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-3 6-4

Rafael Nadal:

First round: vs. Leo Borg 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Mariano Navone 6-7[2] 7-5 7-5
Semi-final: vs. Duje Ajdukovic 4-6 6-3 6-4

Head To Head

Borges was a bit of a late bloomer onto the ATP Tour - only making his top-level debut at the age of 24 - and the Portuguese is yet to square up to Nadal in a top-level singles encounter.

Both men stack up similarly on the physical side of things at 6ft 1in each, and yet again, Sunday's final will see the left-handed Nadal cross paths with a right-handed opponent.

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We say: Borges to win in three sets

Nadal's mental fortitude has never been called into question, but the 38-year-old's body has not let him down at all in Bastad, and withdrawing from his doubles semi-final was definitely a smart choice from the 22-time major winner.

However, the Spaniard won a few of his crucial points in his semi-final on Ajdukovic mistakes, and he should not enjoy a similar luxury against Borges, who kept his unforced error count way down on Saturday. As a result, the Portuguese - who has made great strides this year - has our backing to win his inaugural ATP Tour title and condemn Nadal to a rare final defeat.