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Preview: Rafael Nadal vs. Duje Ajdukovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Swedish Open semi-final between Rafael Nadal and Duje Ajdukovic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Finally an ATP Tour semi-finalist again after two gruelling years, Rafael Nadal battles Croatia's Duje Ajdukovic on Saturday lunchtime for a spot in the Swedish Open final in Bastad.

The Spanish wildcard defeated Mariano Navone in a four-hour epic in Friday's quarter-final, while his unfancied foe also broke new ground by seeing off Thiago Monteiro in three sets.


Match preview

Rafael Nadal pictured at the Swedish Open on July 18, 2024© Imago

Many wondered how Nadal's 38-year-old legs would fare in a three-set spectacular with Argentinian fourth seed Navone, who gave the 22-time Grand Slam winner an excellent run for his money and would ostensibly have the fitness edge the longer the match wore on.

Nadal was facing an opponent who has been on a meteoric rise over the past several months - especially on clay - but the Spaniard left the Bastad crowd bewildered with an extraordinary 6-7[2] 7-5 7-5 victory to progress to his first ATP Tour semi-final of the 2024 season.

In a back-and-forth quarter-final of breaks galore, Nadal blinked first in the deciding set before establishing a seemingly unassailable 5-2 lead, but there was plenty of fight left in Navone's heart, as he miraculously earned two breaks back to level at 5-5.

However, the Argentine fatally lost serve for the 10th time in the match to hand Nadal the opportunity to serve out the match, which he did as Navone sent a tired forehand into the net, allowing the 14-time Roland-Garros winner to raise his arms aloft in both elation and relief.

While admitting that his mental strength escaped him at various points during the contest, Nadal's ageing body served him incredibly well throughout the titanic tie, but the 38-year-old also has the small matter of a doubles semi-final with Casper Ruud in the diary for Saturday too.

Duje Ajdukovic pictured in May 2022© Imago

Before thoughts turn to that four-man matchup, Nadal seeks to avoid a Scandinavian upset against Croatian qualifier Ajdukovic, who toppled both Luca Van Assche and Pavel Kotov en route to a quarter-final against Brazil's Thiago Monteiro, which also went the distance on Centre Court.

Despite failing to see out the contest in two sets as Monteiro threatened a fightback, the world number 130 responded in perfect fashion with a break straight away in the decider, which his South American foe could not recover from as Ajdukovic prevailed 6-2 4-6 6-4 in two hours and nine minutes.

While Nadal has ended a two-year exile from ATP Tour semi-final territory, his Croatian opponent will compete in the semis of a top-level tournament for the very first time this weekend on his favoured surface, having already reached 11 World Tennis Tour and Challenger championship matches on clay.

The 23-year-old utilised a high-risk, high-reward game on Friday, committing 23 unforced errors and counteracting them with 28 winners, while also winning 75% of his points at the net and winning 79% of points on his first serve.

Ajdukovic will no doubt have to harness every inch of his athletic ability if he is to quell the Nadal juggernaut, and a shot at glory against either Nuno Borges or Thiago Agustin Tirante will await the victor of Saturday's headline encounter.


Tournament so far

Rafael Nadal:

First round: vs. Leo Borg 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Mariano Navone 6-7[2] 7-5 7-5

Duje Ajdukovic:

First round: vs. Luca Van Assche 6-3 6-3
Second round: vs. Pavel Kotov 7-6[7] 3-6 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Thiago Monteiro 6-2 4-6 6-4


Head To Head

As Ajdukovic is still learning his trade on the ATP Tour, it comes as no surprise to learn that Saturday's semi-final will be the first-ever showdown between the Croatian and Nadal at the top level.

The 23-year-old has one inch on Nadal height-wise and plays right-handed, throwing up an intriguing battle between himself and the Spanish leftie.


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We say: Nadal to win in two sets

Saturday's semi-final sees two clay aficionados go head-to-head, and one cannot help but wonder how Nadal's body is holding up after Friday's marathon battle, but there is seemingly no cause for concern at the minute.

As a result, the 22-time major winner has our vote to see off the inexperienced Ajdukovic - who is prone to making mistakes - and moving one step closer to ending his silverware drought.

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