With a spot in the ATP World Tour Finals knockout stages already rubber-stamped, Daniil Medvedev seeks a perfect 3-0 record in the Red group when he pits his wits against Carlos Alcaraz on Friday.
Meanwhile, second seed Alcaraz enters the final set of round-robin fixtures outside of the top two, despite defeating Andrey Rublev for his first-ever win at the tournament on Wednesday.
Match preview
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On the back of losing his grip on the year-end world number one ranking to Novak Djokovic, Alcaraz - who fell to Alexander Zverev's superiority on the opening matchday - locked horns with Rublev for the very first time as he sought to keep his hopes of ATP Finals glory alive.
As Rublev typically struggled to keep his emotions in check - even drawing blood from his knee after hitting himself with his racquet - Alcaraz stuck to the task at hand and found the corners of the court time and time again to seal a 7-5 6-2 win in just under 75 minutes.
Remarkably losing just two points on his first serve throughout the entire contest and not allowing Rublev to fashion a single break opportunity, it was total dominance from start to finish for the Spaniard, whose maiden ATP Finals victory has him in with a fighting chance of semi-finals qualification.
All of Alcaraz, Rublev and Zverev are now vying for one spot in the final four, and while the Spaniard sits below Zverev in third place on account of his defeat to the German, he will be guaranteed a semi-final berth with victory over Medvedev if Zverev falls to defeat against Rublev.
A defeat would not be the be all and end all for the 20-year-old, but he would require Rublev to sink Zverev and hope that his sets and games win percentage ends up being superior to both players, while an in-form Medvedev need not worry about such permutations on Friday.
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Clashing racquets with Zverev for the 18th time on the ATP Tour, Medvedev already had a dominant win over Rublev under his belt and prolonged his golden streak on hard courts to become the first player to reach the 2023 semi-finals, and in some style too.
Sitting deep behind the baseline before waiting for the right moment to strike, Medvedev came through 7-6[7] 6-4, although not all was sunshine and rainbows for the Russian in the first set, as Zverev earned the first break of the match before going 4-1 up in the first-set tie-breaker.
However, Medvedev was able to turn defence into attack in the blink of an eye, drawing Zverev to the net before sending a selection of sublime passing shots beyond him, and a few too many unforced errors from the German also helped the 2020 champion on his way to the last four.
Rectifying his mistakes from 2022, where his year-end tournament campaign ended in the round-robin phase, Medvedev boasts an astounding 42-0 record on hard courts in 2023 when winning the first set, and a 12th win over a top-10 player is also a single-season record among Russian male players since 1973.
Victory over Alcaraz would ensure that Medvedev sails through to the semi-finals as the Red group winner, but with his vengeful opponent seeking redemption from their US Open semi-final showdown, the Russian should not rest on his laurels on Friday.
Tournament so far
Carlos Alcaraz:
Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 7-6[3] 3-6 4-6
Round robin: vs. Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-2
Daniil Medvedev:
Round robin: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-2
Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 7-6[7] 6-4
Head To Head
Wimbledon (2021) - Second round: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-1 6-2
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-2
Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-3 6-3
US Open (2023) - Semi-final: Medvedev wins 7-6[3] 6-1 3-6 6-3
While Medvedev and Alcaraz are two of the less familiar foes in Turin, the pair have still locked horns on four occasions since the Spaniard's emergence onto the ATP Tour scene, and the tie is delicately poised with two wins apiece for both men.
Back in the second round of Wimbledon in 2021, Medvedev had no problem seeing off a teenage Alcaraz, who responded with victory in the final of this year's Indian Wells Masters before a semi-final success at SW19 this summer.
However, Medvedev's hard-court mastery proved telling at Flushing Meadows in September, as he emerged triumphant from a four-set spectacular with Alcaraz to progress to the showpiece match, only to finish second best to Novak Djokovic after ending Alcaraz's title defence.
We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets
As showcased in New York two months ago, Medvedev thrives under the pressure of delivering in blockbuster hard-court contests, and few are better equipped to defend against Alcaraz's hard-hitting approach.
Medvedev could be forgiven for conserving his energy for the semi-finals, though, and with his own hopes of progression potentially hinging on a positive result on Friday, we have faith in Alcaraz to come up with the goods and do all he can to seal a top-two finish.
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Ben Knapton
