Friends become temporary enemies on Thursday when two-time defending Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka takes on first-time semi-finalist Paula Badosa in the last four.
Three-peat-chasing Sabalenka needed three sets against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to advance, while her Spanish opponent ended Coco Gauff's nine-match winning start to the season to seal a maiden semis spot at a Grand Slam.
Match preview
© Imago
For much of Tuesday, it seemed like the two-time defending champion Down Under would relinquish her title in Melbourne, having been outplayed by her Russian opponent and one-time Grand Slam finalist.
While Sabalenka went into her match-up trailing 2-1 in their head-to-head, both women had never faced off at Melbourne Park, where the Belarusian had not dropped a set since her 2023 championship match.
Although the world No. 1 faced a mild scare in round two when she was 5-2 down against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the second set before roaring back for a 6-3, 7-5 success, her slump was not as extended as Tuesday's quarter-final, where she dropped a set for the first time and struggled to hold her serve in the third before sealing a 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 success, setting up a match-up with her friend off the court.
With that triumph, the 26-year-old is two wins away from clinching three straight titles Down Under, becoming the first woman to achieve the feat this century and the first since Martina Hingis's three victories from 1997-1999.
Entering this match with a 19-match winning streak in Melbourne, the top seed aims to exploit Badosa's comparative inexperience in such matches to advance to Saturday's championship match.
© Imago
The Spaniard, a former world No. 2, entered her last-eight match with Gauff knowing full well she needed a top showing and an error-strewn performance from the third seed to seal a first semi-final berth at a major; the 20-year-old's 41 unforced errors undoubtedly played a part in the 11th seed's eventual 7-5, 6-4 success.
Badosa came into this tournament having never gone beyond the fourth round in Australia and with only two quarter-final appearances under her belt, yet she got the job done against the in-form American No. 1 to seal a first top-10 victory at a Slam, snapping a three-match losing streak against elite opponents.
Having considered retirement from the sport due to a chronic back issue, which saw her slide to No. 140 in the world last year, the 27-year-old aims to make the most of her first appearance at this level, keen to play freely against an opponent under all the pressure to claim a third straight title.
Badosa's run Down Under means she has improved to 11 wins in Australia, matching her tally of victories at the French Open, and she seeks a 12th over her friend to seal an unexpected title match at the leading event.
The four-time WTA Tour champion had neither gone beyond the quarters of a Major nor defeated a top-10 player at a Grand Slam before this year's tournament, but she has broken new ground in Melbourne and is aiming even higher for a shot at dethroning Sabalenka.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: vs. Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5
Third round: vs. Clara Tauson 7-6[5] 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2 2-6 6-3
Paula Badosa:
First round: vs. Wang Xiyu 6-3 7-6[5]
Second round: vs. Talia Gibson 6-1 6-0
Third round: vs. Marta Kostyuk 6-4 4-6 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Olga Danilovic 6-1 7-6[2]
Quarter-final: vs. Coco Gauff 7-5 6-4
Head To Head
Roland Garros (2024) - Third round: Sabalenka 7-5 6-1
Stuttgart (2024) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 7-6(4) 4-6 3-3 ret
Miami (2024) - Round of 64: Sabalenka 6-4 6-3
Stuttgart (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 4-6 6-4 6-4
Stuttgart (2022) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 7-6(5) 6-4
Round Robin (2021) - Round Robin: Badosa 6-4 6-0
Cincinnati (2021) - Round of 64: Badosa 5-7 6-2 7-6(4)
While Badosa won the pair's first match-up on the WTA Tour, Sabalenka has since responded to notch five straight victories to lead their head-to-head 5-2.
Fresh off her first top-10 victory at a Major, following losses to Thursday's opponent at Roland Garros in 2024, Petra Kvitova at the Aussie Open five years back and Kiki Bertens at the 2019 US Open, the Spanish player seeks back-to-back victories over the elite at the Aussie Open.
Sabalenka is 14-2 against top-20 opponents heading into the forthcoming match, with her two losses coming at the hands of Elena Rybakina and Gauff at 2024's year-end event in Riyadh.
We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets
Since losing to Gauff at the 2023 US Open final, Sabalenka has notched seven wins over opponents in the top 20 before taking on Badosa.
The world No. 1, who has not dropped a set in those match-ups, is anticipated to secure an eighth victory against such opponents to advance to the championship match.
