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Preview: Australian Open: Jack Draper vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian Open fourth-round match between Jack Draper and Carlos Alcaraz, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Aleksandar Vukic battled hard, but Jack Draper battled harder to secure a third consecutive five-set win at the Australian Open to set up a mouthwatering fourth-round match with Career Grand Slam-chasing Carlos Alcaraz.

Alcaraz's run to round four has been characterised by his newfound razor-sharp focus allied with his wont for breathtaking shot selection and execution, and both will be put to the test against the battle-hardened British No. 1.


Match preview

Jack Draper reacts at the Australian Open on January 15, 2025© Imago

Draper was backed to send a partisan crowd home disappointed in four sets, but the marathon man went to a decider for the third consecutive round Down Under against Vukic, who was doing likewise, before sealing a 6-4, 2-6, 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(8) victory.

Although he claimed the first set this time, Draper found himself heading into a fourth set for the third time this week, knowing full well he needed to win sets four and five to avoid elimination from Melbourne; each time, he took up the gauntlet, showing that victories over Mariano Navone and Thanasi Kokkinakis were no flukes.

He was far from perfect on Friday, even when he seemed to have the momentum, highlighted by missing two breakpoint opportunities to take a 4-1 lead in the deciding set – Vukic held serve and broke back to level the fifth 3-3 – before losing a 3-0 advantage in the drama-laden 10-point shootout to close out the match.

Undaunted by the one-sided home crowd in consecutive rounds against Aussie opponents, the street-fighting Draper enters round four, possibly anticipating the vast majority of the crowd to be on his opponent's side, but when has that ever bothered the Briton?

Having already outdone his tournament-opening exit two years back and a round-two elimination 12 months back, the 15th seed, who became the seventh man in history to claim five-set wins in the Aussie Open's first three rounds after Adrian Mannarino (2024), Dominik Hrbaty (2006), Thomas Johansson (2005), Felix Mantilla (2003), Nicolas Lapentti (1999) and Steve Denton (1981), aims for his biggest upset by beating a motivated and in-form opponent.

Carlos Alcaraz reacts at the Australian Open on January 17, 2025© Imago

While Draper has been lauded for his battling qualities and doggedness en route to the fourth round, Alcaraz has barely broken a sweat, dispatching Alexander Shevchenko in one hour and 54 minutes, Yoshihito Nishioka in one hour and 21 minutes and Nuno Borges in five minutes shy of three hours – for context, Draper has spent four hours and one minute in round one, four hours and 35 minutes against Kokkinakis and two minutes below four hours against Vukic.

Further impressing has been the Spaniard retaining his tendency to entertain whilst limiting the intermittent losses of focus that have frustrated his staunchest supporters or the neutral observer.

While the Spaniard might have dropped a set for the first time against Borges, that was an upshot of the Portuguese No. 1 forcing the issue and tightening up rather than Alcaraz's level dropping significantly.

Seemingly keen to record his Career Grand Slam Down Under, the four-time Slam champion's serve is becoming an additional weapon, while his improved rally tolerance and continued desire to entertain make him red-hot for a deep run.

Having exited early at the second round at Flushing Meadows, the 21-year-old is seeking consecutive quarter-final appearances in Melbourne, where his 77% win rate falls below performances in Paris (86%), Wimbledon (90%) and Flushing Meadows (85%).

Alcaraz's improved execution and focus at the turn of the year will be given a stern examination against the never-say-die Briton, with Sunday's victor facing Novak Djokovic or Jiri Lehecka in the last eight.


Tournament so far

Jack Draper:

First round: vs. Mariano Navone 4-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-7[3] 6-3 3-6 7-5 6-3
Third round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 6-4 2-6 5-7 7-6[5] 7-6[8]

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Alexander Shevchenko 6-1 7-5 6-1
Second round: vs. Yoshihito Nishioka 6-0 6-1 6-4
Third round: vs. Nuno Borges 6-2 6-4 6-7[3] 6-2


Head To Head

Queen's Club (2024) - Round of 16: Draper 7-6(3) 6-3

Indian Wells (2023) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-2 2-0 ret

Basel (2022) - Round of 32: Alcaraz 3-6 6-2 7-5

Both players meet for the first time since Draper's shock victory on the grass courts at the Queen's Club, claiming his first win over Alcaraz on the ATP Tour.

While the Spaniard has beaten the British No. 1 twice on hard courts, Sunday's match-up will be their first at a Grand Slam.

The lefty has a 6-13 win-loss record against top-10 opponents, though four victories were in 2024; only one of the six has been at a Major – his straight-set victory over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the US Open second round in 2022.

Pertinently, Draper has a 5-1 record in five-setters, with three of those wins coming at the ongoing tournament; however, Alcaraz is 12-1 in such matches in his career, clinching success in nine consecutive five-set marathons since losing to Matteo Berrettini in the Aussie Open third round three years ago.


SM words green background

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Surely, Draper does not have another five-setter in him, does he? While the Brit's tenacity has impressed so far, Alcaraz's variety and improved concentration stand him in good stead to make the last eight at battling Jack's expense.

Unbeaten in eight Grand Slam matches against left-handed opponents (30-9 overall at ATP-level events), the Spanish sensation is backed to notch a ninth by defeating the Brit.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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