Tommy Paul and Alexander Zverev tussle in Tuesday's Australian Open quarter-final in the battle between two previous semi-finalists.
With a last-four berth against Novak Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz up for grabs, the United States player aims to outwit the No. 2 seed bidding for a maiden Grand Slam title.
Match preview
© Imago
When Paul's Australian Open run is over, the American might look back at his tournament-opening victory over Aussie Christopher O'Connell pleasingly, having survived a four-hour five-setter to advance.
Since that triumph, the 12th seed has taken care of veteran Kei Nishikori in two hours and 41 minutes, Roberto Carballes Baena in 18 fewer minutes and Baena's Spanish compatriot Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in under 90 minutes, notching a 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 success in Sunday's fourth-round match.
Losing three games in the last-16 match-up means the American has dropped the fewest games in completed last-16 matches at the Australian Open in the Open Era in 38 years, since Stefan Edberg lost two against Robert Seguso in 1987, underscoring the 2023 semi-finalist's dominance.
Paul may have exited at the third round last year, but he is one victory away from matching his 2023 run to the final four before losing to eventual champion Novak Djokovic in straight sets.
The 27-year-old, who became the youngest United States player after Andy Roddick in 2004 to reach two last-eight matches after Sunday's one-sided success, should back himself for another semi-final appearance against an opponent he has never lost to.
© Imago
Zverev is winless in two previous match-ups with Paul on the ATP Tour, though the German has not faced the 12th seed in three years.
The second seed was tipped to triumph over Ugo Humbert in four, and the 23-time title winner on the men's tour dispatched the Frenchman 6-1, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 in two hours and 16 minutes.
With all the attention on Djokovic chasing a record 25th Grand Slam, Carlos Alcaraz seeking a Career Grand Slam and Jannik Sinner aiming to defend his title, Zverev has progressed under the radar at Melbourne Park without overexerting himself.
Given that all his matches have been under two hours 30 minutes – he beat Spaniard Pedro Martinez in under two hours – the two-time Aussie Open semi-finalist enters Tuesday's last-eight contest fresh for the decisive second week.
Improving to 29-9 in Australia has taken him to 105 victories at Majors, equalling Tommy Haas for most wins among Germans, and defeating Paul would make him the standalone holder of the highest number of Grand Slam victories from his nation in the Open Era – behind only Boris Becker.
Zverev's consistency on tour has seen him win the ATP Finals twice, claim seven Masters titles and notch an Olympic gold medal, but Grand Slam success has eluded the eight-time semi-finalist and two-time finalist at the leading events.
While a possible semi-final with Djokovic or Alcaraz awaits, the second seed must worry about Tuesday's opponent, against whom he has failed to win on the men's tour.
Tournament so far
Tommy Paul:
First round: vs. Christopher O'Connell 6-2 3-6 6-1 7-6[5] 7-5
Second round: vs. Kei Nishikori 6-7[3] 6-0 6-3 6-1
Third round: vs. Roberto Carballes Baena 7-6[0] 6-2 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-1 6-1 6-1
Alexander Zverev:
First round: vs. Lucas Pouille 6-4 6-4 6-4
Second round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-1 6-4 6-1
Third round: vs. Jacob Fearnley 6-3 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Ugo Humbert 6-1 2-6 6-3 6-2
Head To Head
Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 64: Paul 6-2 4-6 7-6(2)
Acapulco (2020) - Round of 16: Paul 6-3 6-4
Paul leads his head-to-head with Zverev, twice defeating the German on hard courts in Acapulco and Indian Wells.
They meet at a Grand Slam for the first time, with the American entering the last eight with a 6-1 record this season, while the No. 2 seed is undefeated in all six matches.
While Paul snapped a 0-3 run against top-10 players with last year's victory over Grigor Dimitrov in Stockholm, he is winless in six matches against the elite at the majors, falling to Djokovic at the Australian Open, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev at Roland Garros, Alcaraz at Wimbledon and Casper Ruud and Sinner at the US Open.
We say: Zverev to win in five sets
Despite a losing record against Paul, a motivated Zverev should exploit the American player's failures to win in best-of-five matches against the top 10.
With both players relatively fresh, the last-eight match could ebb and flow before the second seed edges it in a decider.
