A highly-anticipated repeat of the 2023 US Open final is upon us, as Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka clash for the right to compete in the final of the 2024 Australian Open in Thursday's semi-final.
The American teenager was not made to pay for a surfeit of mistakes in a three-set quarter-final win over Marta Kostyuk, while Sabalenka dominated fellow Grand Slam winner Barbora Krejcikova.
Match preview
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From her four opening clashes with non-seeded opponents, Gauff did not drop a set en route to another seemingly straightforward battle with world number 37 Kostyuk in the quarter-finals, although the 19-year-old made the contest far more complicated than it needed to be.
Only managing 15 winners compared to alarming 51 unforced errors, Gauff - who also registered nine double faults in an off-colour display - would end up benefitting from Kostyuk's own mistakes as she came through 7-6[6] 6-7[3] 6-2 in an absorbing three-hour contest.
Tuesday's quarter-final was awash with twist and turns in front of the captivated Rod Laver Arena crowd, who witnessed Gauff come back from 5-2 down to take the opener before she was broken while serving for the match in the second set, but Kostyuk's resilience bedevilled her in a third-set mauling.
Gauff admitted to producing a 'C' grade performance in her last-eight battle, although the US Open champion is keeping her fingers crossed that the "bad match" is now out of her system as she prepares to compete in the semi-finals of the Australian Open for the very first time.
The American is yet to suffer semi-final heartbreak at a major tournament, progressing from her only two semi-final ties at last year's US Open and the 2022 French Open, but a particularly vengeful foe now stands in her way of back-to-back Grand Slam showpiece appearances.
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Akin to her upcoming opponent, second seed Sabalenka also breezed through her opening four Melbourne encounters without dropping a single set, and the 25-year-old had only been on the court for 71 minutes against Krejcikova before revelling in another routine triumph.
Sabalenka earned six breaks from the nine opportunities she fashioned in a 6-2 6-3 success over the former French Open winner, who was powerless to defend against the Belarusian's overwhelming forehand - a side where she hit 10 winners compared to just six for Krejcikova overall.
By maintaining her 100% record in Grand Slam quarter-finals - making it eight successes from eight appearances at that stage - Sabalenka will compete in her sixth successive major semi-final this week, although only two of her previous seven matches at this point have ended in victory for the world number two.
An abundance of unforced errors have previously been Sabalenka's downfall at this point in Grand Slams, but the reigning Australian Open champion kept such mistakes to a minimum against Krejcikova, posting just 13 throughout the contest to prolong her dreams of back-to-back Melbourne titles.
Whichever revered title-chaser comes up trumps on Thursday will face one of four potential opponents for the right to be crowned Australian Open champion, as Zheng Qinwen, Anna Kalinskaya, Linda Noskova and Dayana Yastremska do battle in their respective quarter-finals on Wednesday, at which point Gauff and Sabalenka's preparations will already be at full throttle.
Tournament so far
Coco Gauff:
First round: vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 6-3 6-0
Second round: vs. Caroline Dolehide 7-6[2] 6-2
Third round: vs. Alycia Parks 6-0 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Magdalena Frech 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Marta Kostyuk 7-6[6] 6-7[3] 6-2
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: vs. Ella Seidel 6-0 6-1
Second round: vs. Brenda Fruhvirtova 6-3 6-2
Third round: vs. Lesia Tsurenko 6-0 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Amanda Anisimova 6-3 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Barbora Krejcikova 6-2 6-3
Head To Head
US Open (2023) - Final: Gauff wins 2-6 6-3 6-2
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka wins 6-4 6-0
Toronto Open (2022) - Last 16: Gauff wins 7-5 4-6 7-6[4]
Italian Open (2021) - Last 16: Gauff wins 7-5 6-3
Ostrava Open (2020) - Second round: Sabalenka wins 1-6 7-5 7-6[2]
Top Seed Open (2020) - Second round: Gauff wins 7-6[4] 4-6 6-4
Little needs to be said on the head-to-head history between Gauff and Sabalenka, who served up a memorable spectacle in the final of the 2023 US Open, where Gauff recovered from a disastrous opening set to prevail in three and lift her first major title above her head.
That Flushing Meadows success was one of four wins Gauff has achieved from six previous battles with Sabalenka, who did earn one victory over the teenager in 2023, posting a second-set bagel en route to an Indian Wells quarter-final crushing.
Meetings in Toronto, Rome and Lexington have also gone the way of the American fourth seed, whose only other loss to Sabalenka came in the second round of the 2020 Ostrava Open, where the Belarusian bit back after losing the opening set 6-1 to the then-16-year-old protege.
We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets
Despite her inferior head-to-head record against the reigning US Open champion, the intimidating Sabalenka is playing like a woman possessed as she steamrolls her way through the opposition, while Gauff's error-strewn display against Kostyuk may be a slight cause for concern.
The American survived by the skin of her teeth against the Ukrainian, but Sabalenka ought to punish any replication of such mistakes on Thursday, and while we can finally see the Belarusian losing her 100% sets record against her nimble opponent, she can complete her revenge mission to inch ever closer to another Melbourne honour.
Ben Knapton
