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Preview: Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian Open semi-final between Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

On the back of unforgettable quarter-final successes on Wednesday, familiar foes Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev renew hostilities in Friday's intriguing Australian Open semi-final.

The Russian downed Hubert Hurkacz in five sets before Zverev triumphed in an equally mesmerising battle, eliminating Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz in four.


Match preview

Daniil Medvedev reacts at the Australian Open on January 15, 2024© Reuters

Only one of Medvedev's opening four contests at the 2024 Australian Open ended with the third seed prevailing in straight sets, and it came as no surprise to see the Russian cut an extremely fatigued figure against the imposing Hurkacz, who fired 16 aces past his jelly-legged foe and benefitted from 10 Medvedev double faults.

Despite being out-gunned on serve - which there is no shame in against Hurkacz - Medvedev swapped his deep baseline play for a spate of serve-and-volley points in the hopes of bringing the fifth set to a swift end, and his approach paid dividends in a 7-6[4] 2-6 6-3 5-7 6-4 success.

In a contest rife with thrilling exchanges at the net, Medvedev's renowned defensive supremacy won out as he saved 10 of the 15 break points Hurkacz managed to fashion, while completing the job with the most delicate of drop shots on his second match point of the contest.

The 27-year-old - whose 109 second-serve return points won at the Australian Open is second only to Hurkacz himself - now ramps up preparations for Australian Open semi-final number three, and he has progressed from both of his previous appearances in the 2021 and 2022 final four, while only losing two of his seven Grand Slam semi-finals to date.

A Grand Slam hard-court match involving Medvedev is almost always a foregone conclusion if the Russian takes the first set too, as he has won 50 of his 51 contests in such circumstances, only falling short to Rafael Nadal in the 2022 Melbourne final.

German tennis player Alexander Zverev on January 20, 2024© Reuters

While Medvedev can already proudly display a major trophy on his mantelpiece, German sixth seed Zverev remains without a coveted Grand Slam honour, but the 26-year-old enhanced his Australian Open credentials and then some when faced with an Alcaraz-sized test.

After making the most of some early Alcaraz mistakes with an exceptional serving performance, Zverev briefly handed Alcaraz a lifeline in the third set - where he was broken while serving for a place in the semis - but he quickly rediscovered his clinical edge to win 6-1 6-3 6-7[2] 6-4.

In what will go down as one of his most impressive Grand Slam performances to date, a whopping 86% of Zverev's first serves found the mark, and the world number six also shrugged off a foot problem which required medical attention to reach major semi number seven.

However, only one of Zverev's previous six attempts to win a Grand Slam semi-final have been successful, and since reaching his first and only major showpiece match to date at the 2020 US Open, the German has been bested in five-straight Grand Slam semi encounters.

Four years on from his maiden Australian Open semi-final, which ended in defeat to Dominic Thiem, Zverev will bid to follow up his first-ever Grand Slam top-five win with a second in quick succession, the reward for which will be a battle for the ages against Novak Djokovic or Jannik Sinner in Sunday's main event.


Tournament so far

Daniil Medvedev:

First round: vs. Terenc Atmane 5-7 6-2 6-4 1-0 ret.
Second round: vs. Emil Ruusuvuori 3-6 6-7[1] 6-4 7-6[1] 6-0
Third round: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-3 6-4 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Nuno Borges 6-3 7-6[4] 5-7 6-1
Quarter-final: vs. Hubert Hurkacz 7-6[4] 2-6 6-3 5-7 6-4

Alexander Zverev:

First round: vs. Dominik Koepfer 4-6 6-3 7-6[3] 6-3
Second round: vs. Lukas Klein 7-5 3-6 4-6 7-6[5] 7-6[7]
Third round: vs. Alex Michelsen 6-2 7-6[4] 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Cameron Norrie 7-5 3-6 6-3 4-6 7-6[3]
Quarter-final: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6-1 6-3 6-7[2] 6-4


Head To Head

ATP Finals (2023) - Round robin: Medvedev wins 7-6[7] 6-3
China Open (2023) - Semi-final: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-3
Cincinnati Masters (2023) - Last 16: Zverev wins 6-4 5-7 6-4
Italian Open (2023) - Last 16: Medvedev wins 6-2 7-6[3]
Monte-Carlo Masters (2023) - Last 16: Medvedev wins 3-6 7-5 7-6[7]
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Last 16: Medvedev wins 6-7[5] 7-6[5] 7-5
ATP Finals (2021) - Final: Zverev wins 6-4 6-4
ATP Finals (2021) - Round robin: Medvedev wins 6-3 6-7[3] 7-6[6]
Paris Masters (2021) - Semi-final: Medvedev wins 6-2 6-2
ATP Cup (2021) - Semi-final: Medvedev wins 3-6 6-3 7-5
ATP Finals (2020) - Round robin: Medvedev wins 6-3 6-4
Paris Masters (2020) - Final: Medvedev wins 5-7 6-4 6-1
ATP Finals (2019) - Round robin: Zverev wins 6-4 7-6[4]
Shanghai Masters (2019) - Final: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-1
Canadian Open (2018) - Last 16: Zverev wins 6-3 6-2
Miami Open (2018) - Second round: Zverev wins 6-4 1-6 7-6[5]
Citi Open (2017) - Quarter-final: Zverev wins 6-2 6-4
St Petersburg Open (2016) - Last 16: Zverev wins 6-3 7-5

Medvedev and Zverev could be forgiven for being sick of the sight of one another by now, as the pair have already clashed 18 times on the ATP Tour, 11 of which Medvedev has emerged triumphant in.

After losing five of his first six battles with Zverev from 2016 to 2019, the Russian third seed came up trumps in five of their six contests in 2023, most recently winning in straight sets in the ATP Finals round-robin phase, while he also came from a set down to prevail in Monte Carlo and Indian Wells.

However, while the duo have butted heads many a time at ATP Finals events and Masters 1000 tournaments, never before have they met in a Grand Slam setting, ramping up the pressure on both of their shoulders for Friday's tantalising tie.


SM words green background

We say: Zverev to win in five sets

While Medvedev's second-serve return win rate at the Australian Open is something to behold, no male player has won more first-serve return points than Zverev's 149, and the German produced an exemplary display behind his own serve against Alcaraz.

As solid as the German was, he was no doubt helped by an off-colour start from the Wimbledon winner, and if there is any player better equipped to defend against Zverev's vicious backhand - barring maybe Djokovic - it is Medvedev.

Both men have already spent an unholy number of hours on the Melbourne court and are all too familiar with one another's strengths and weaknesses, but if Medvedev is plagued by tiredness once again, we can envisage a hard-hitting Zverev taking full advantage to reach Sunday's showpiece.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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