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Preview: Dayana Yastremska vs. Qinwen Zheng - prediction, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Australian Open semi-final between Dayana Yastremska and Qinwen Zheng, including predictions and their tournament so far.

Two first-time Grand Slam semi-finalists do battle for the chance to compete for Australian Open glory on Thursday, as Dayana Yastremska takes on Qinwen Zheng at the Rod Laver Arena.

The Ukrainian qualifier prolonged her magical adventure by beating Linda Noskova in the last eight, while the Chinese 12th seed broke new ground in a three-set success over Anna Kalinskaya.


Match preview

Dayana Yastremska reacts at the Australian Open on January 24, 2024© Reuters

Yastremska's sensational first-round beating of Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova was evidently a sign of things to come for the 23-year-old, who has already earned a slice of Grand Slam history and is now just two matches away from joining Emma Raducanu in an elite qualifiers party.

Faced with the challenge of 19-year-old Czech protege Linda Noskova in the quarter-finals, Yastremska was the victim of the first break of the match in the third game, but Noskova's powers quickly waned as the Ukrainian's came to the fore in a 6-3 6-4 triumph, which she took one hour and 18 minutes to seal.

Only 55% of Yastremska's first serves found the mark on the day, but the 23-year-old worked Noskova acros the court with ruthless aplomb and showcased her venomous groundstrokes throughout, coming up with 17 winners compared to a paltry five for her teenage foe.

By virtue of her quarter-final beating of Noskova, Yastremska is the first women's qualifier in 46 years to reach the Australian Open semi-finals - Christine Matison was the most recent to do so in 1978 - and only six female qualifiers have ever reached a Grand Slam semi in the Open Era.

Three years ago at the US Open, Raducanu etched her name into folklore as the first-ever qualifier to win a women's singles crown at a major tournament, and having already eliminated three seeds in the shape of Vondrousova, Emma Navarro and Victoria Azarenka, Yastremska is well within her rights to dream of emulating the Briton's magnificent achievement.

Qinwen Zheng reacts at the Australian Open on January 24, 2024© Reuters

The 23-year-old's fellow first-time Grand Slam semi-finalist Zheng will be playing the role of party pooper on Thursday, though, having come from behind to win for the second time in the current Melbourne competition, sending Russia's Kalinskaya out 6-7[4] 6-3 6-1 in two hours and 20 minutes.

Twice Zheng broke in the first set only to lose serve straight away, and the Chinese 12th seed also let a 3-1 lead slip in the tie-breaker, but the 21-year-old's physical prowess came to her rescue in the latter stages of the match as Kalinskaya began to tire, winning each of the final six games of the match in a true statement victory.

No female player has registered more aces than Zheng at the ongoing major, as the Chinese took her total to 44 with 10 in her quarter-final triumph, while only committing 14 unforced errors and striking 42 winners en route to a place in the semi-finals and a spot in the top 10 of the WTA rankings.

The 2002-born Chinese is now the youngest-ever player from her country to compete in a major semi-final, although she has only faced unseeded opponents at the 2024 Australian Open so far, which will not be the case if she outlasts Yastremska in Thursday's Rod Laver Arena showdown.

Indeed, the victor of this semi-final will go into the championship match as the heavy underdog against either Coco Gauff or reigning champion Aryna Sabalenka, and for one of the two trailblazers, their headline-making campaigns will end before the opportunity for Grand Slam glory arises.


Tournament so far

Dayana Yastremska:

First round: vs. Marketa Vondrousova 6-1 6-2
Second round: vs. Varvara Gracheva 6-3 6-2
Third round: vs. Emma Navarro 6-2 2-6 6-1
Round of 16: vs. Victoria Azarenka 7-6[6] 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Linda Noskova 6-3 6-4

Qinwen Zheng:

First round: vs. Ashlyn Krueger 3-6 6-2 6-3
Second round: vs. Katie Boulter 6-3 6-3
Third round: vs. Yafan Wang 6-4 2-6 7-6[8]
Round of 16: vs. Oceane Dodin 6-0 6-3
Quarter-final: Anna Kalinskaya 6-7[4] 6-3 6-1


Head To Head

With both Yastremska and Zheng still in the embryonic stages of their WTA careers, Thursday's semi-final will represent a mouthwatering first-ever meeting between the two Australian Open hopefuls, both of whom play a right-handed, aggressive baseline style.

Zheng stands at just one inch taller than her qualifier opponent, who has three WTA Tour titles to boast compared to just two crowns for the 21-year-old, although the Chinese's overall win rate at the top level sits at 69.7% compared to Yastremska's 58.8%.


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We say: Zheng to win in three sets

Zheng may not have landed as many first serves as she would have liked in her beating of Kalinskaya, but those that found the mark were devastating, and Yastremska's ace counter will surely be inferior to that of the 12th seed on Thursday.

The Ukrainian is still capable of firing an array of slick winners from all angles, but while the Ukrainian qualifier should push Zheng all the way, we still have belief in the 21-year-old to come good in three sets and end the Yastremska dream.

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