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Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian Open semi-final between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

The 10-time champion renews hostilities with the first-time semi-finalist in Friday's Australian Open last-four showdown, as defending champion Novak Djokovic faces Jannik Sinner in a tantalising encounter.

Djokovic sunk Taylor Fritz in four sets to continue his magnificent winning streak in Melbourne, while the Italian prolonged Andrey Rublev's quarter-final hoodoo to break new ground Down Under.


Match preview

Serbia's Novak Djokovic celebrates after winning his fourth round match against France's Adrian Mannarino on January 21, 2024© Reuters

Prior to Tuesday's quarter-final contest in the blistering Melbourne heat, Djokovic had prevailed in all eight of his previous ATP Tour ties with American 12th seed Fritz, and the 24-time Grand Slam winner was not about to let that 100% sequence be snapped at the ninth time of asking.

Djokovic's ruthless streak bedevilled him in the first two sets against Fritz, who saved a staggering 15 break points before the holder finally converted his 16th opening en route to a 7-6[3] 4-6 6-2 6-3 triumph, helped in no small part by an apparent foot injury to his American foe.

Flaunting his improved service game, Djokovic edged Fritz on the aces counter with 20 compared to the American's 16 and produced 49 winners to advance to his 11th Australian Open semi-final, which usually only means one thing for the Serbian.

Indeed, Djokovic -who is on a 33-match winning streak in the opening Grand Slam of the year, the joint-best streak alongside Monica Seles - has never been knocked out of the Australian Open in the final four and has gone on to clinch Melbourne glory on each of the previous 10 occasions where he has advanced to the semi-finals.

In fact, it has been nearly five years since Djokovic last lost in the semi-final of any Grand Slam tournament, being dumped out of the 2019 French Open at this stage by Dominic Thiem, but the 36-year-old will no doubt face his toughest challenge of the year so far against a foe who knows a thing or two about beating Djokovic on hard courts.

Jannik Sinner reacts at the Australian Open on January 23, 2024© Reuters

While Djokovic has now dropped three sets in the opening Grand Slam of 2024, the red-hot Jannik Sinner still boasts a 100% success rate Down Under so far, and the world number four was not in any sort of charitable mood when squaring up to Rublev in Tuesday's second men's quarter-final.

Sinner's Russian opponent had previously tried and failed on nine occasions to win a Grand Slam quarter-final match, and the Italian ensured that the fifth seed's miserable hoodoo would continue, storming to a 6-4 7-6[5] 6-3 triumph in two hours and 39 minutes.

As well as showcasing tremendous anticipation - especially at the net - and benefitting from a Rublev off-day on second serves, Sinner defended valiantly when he needed to most, saving all eight break points and coming from 5-1 down to somehow prevail in the match-defining second-set tie-breaker.

Friday's reunion with Djokovic will mark just Sinner's second semi-final appearance at a major tournament - the 22-year-old reached the final four at Wimbledon last year before being bested by none other than Djokovic himself - and the Italian is now part of an exclusive Australian Open club thanks to his unwavering displays down under.

Besides Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, Sinner is one of just three other male players since 2000 to reach the Australian Open semi-finals without dropping a set - Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych are the others - and one of Alexander Zverev or Daniil Medvedev will be waiting for the victor in the weekend's trophy battle.


Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Dino Prizmic 6-2 6-7[5] 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Alexei Popyrin 6-3 4-6 7-6[4] 6-3
Third round: vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-3 6-3 7-6[2]
Round of 16: vs. Adrian Mannarino 6-0 6-0 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Taylor Fritz 7-6[3] 4-6 6-2 6-3

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Botic van de Zandschulp 6-4 7-5 6-3
Second round: vs. Jesper de Jong 6-2 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Sebastian Baez 6-0 6-1 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Karen Khachanov 6-4 7-5 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-4 7-6[5] 6-3


Head To Head

Davis Cup (2023) - Semi-finals: Sinner wins 6-2 2-6 7-5
ATP Finals (2023) - Final: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-3
ATP Finals (2023) - Round robin: Sinner wins 7-5 6-7[5] 7-6[2]
Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-4 7-6[4]
Wimbledon (2022) - Quarter-final: Djokovic wins 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2
Monte-Carlo Masters (2021) - Second round: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-2

Friday's semi-final will see Djokovic and Sinner clash racquets for the seventh time on the ATP Tour, and while the former has four wins to show from their six contests so far, Sinner has often had the upper hand in recent months.

Djokovic went 3-0 in his first three meetings with Sinner, including an astonishing five-set fightback in last year's Wimbledon semi-finals, and he earned revenge on the Italian in the final of the ATP Finals after being stunned in the round-robin phase of the year-end championships.

Only six days would pass before the pair met again in the Davis Cup, where Sinner once again had Djokovic's number on the hard court, prevailing in three sets for Italy in that semi-final before his nation hoisted the trophy aloft.


SM words green background

We say: Djokovic to win in five sets

While Djokovic is seemingly firing on all cylinders after his wrist issue and illness, Sinner looked to be struggling with an abdominal issue in his quarter-final against Rublev, not that it had much of a harmful impact on the Italian's monstrous performance.

Having saved an abundance of break points against Rublev, Sinner ought to feel quietly confident of closing the door on such chances for Djokovic after the Serbian wasted opening after opening against Fritz, but as he so often does, the defending champion found a way.

Spectators should strap in for an engrossing five-setter between two men who are becoming all too familiar with one another's game, but as long as the temperatures are more forgiving, we still have faith in Djokovic to prolong his perfect semi-final streak and compete for title glory again.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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Serbia's Novak Djokovic celebrates after winning his fourth round match against France's Adrian Mannarino on January 21, 2024
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