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Preview: Jack Draper vs. Holger Rune - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Cincinnati Open quarter-final between Jack Draper and Holger Rune, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Following perhaps the most controversial match he will ever play in his career, Jack Draper continues his quest for Cincinnati Open glory against Holger Rune in Saturday's quarter-final.

The British number one saw off Felix Auger-Aliassime in three sets in the last 16, albeit thanks to an incredibly questionable match point, while his Danish foe ended the Gael Monfils dream.


Match preview

Jack Draper reacts at the Cincinnati Open on August 17, 2024© Imago

A 5-7 6-4 6-4 scoreline certainly did not tell the full story in Draper's last-16 showdown with Canadian Auger-Aliassime, who saved one match point on Friday before succumbing to a contentious second, as a Draper shot at the net looped up, clipped the cord and landed on Auger-Aliassime's side.

While that would have seemingly been a perfectly acceptable match point at face value, Auger-Aliassime - who had only just beaten Casper Ruud in the second round a couple of hours beforehand - was incensed, having believed that the ball deflected off of Draper's racquet and bounced up off the court before landing on the Canadian's side.

Video replays backed up Auger-Aliassime's claim, but Draper pleaded ignorance, and neither the chair umpire nor supervisor had credible evidence to overturn the call following a good few minutes of deliberations, leading to the two competitors eventually hugging it out at the net as the Briton's majestic Cincinnati debut continues.

The reigning Stuttgart Open champion has now joined Andy Murray in an exclusive British tennis club, becoming just the second man from his nation to reach multiple ATP 1000 quarter-finals before turning 23, having also progressed to the last eight of the Canadian Open in 2022.

Victory over Rune would see the 22-year-old punch his ticket to his first Masters semi-final, which would be warranted going by his tremendous three-set efforts against Auger-Aliassime, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jaume Munar, but Friday's match-point drama will remain a hot-button topic.

Holger Rune reacts at the French Open in May 2024© Reuters

Speaking of young players who had to come from a set down to triumph in the last 16, Rune sought to avoid sharing the same fate of Carlos Alcaraz against French veteran Monfils, who sent the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champion packing before squaring up to his Danish foe.

A couple of weeks shy of his 38th birthday, Monfils put up an exceptional fight against his youthful counterpart, but the effects of a gruelling 24 hours eventually caught up to him as Rune prevailed 3-6 6-3 6-4 in two hours and 14 minutes.

The 21-year-old ruthlessly capitalised on Monfils's waning physical condition, working the Frenchman from corner to corner and coming to the net effectively when Monfils was in no man's land, winning 32 of his 40 shots from close range and striking 28 winners in total.

On the hunt for his second Masters crown after conquering Paris two years ago, Rune had never been past the second round of Cincinnati before progressing to this year's quarters, becoming the first male Danish player to reach the last eight in the tournament's Open Era history.

Forced to pull out of the Paris Olympics due to a wrist injury and still searching for his first ATP Tour title this year, Rune is also bidding to avoid a fourth successive quarter-final loss in Masters events; his reward for doing so would be a semi-final affair with either Frances Tiafoe or Hubert Hurkacz.


Tournament so far

Jack Draper:

First round: vs. Jaume Munar 7-5 3-6 7-6[5]
Second round: vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-6 6-4 7-5
Round of 16: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 5-7 6-4 6-4

Holger Rune:

First round: vs. Matteo Berrettini 2-6 6-1 6-4
Second round: vs. Nuno Borges 6-3 7-6[8]
Round of 16: vs. Gael Monfils 3-6 6-3 6-4


Head To Head

Both still in the embryonic stages of their careers, the right-handed Rune and left-handed Draper - who is one year older than the Scandinavian - are yet to meet in an ATP Tour contest.

The pair were due to pair up for a doubles match in an ITF event in the Czech Republic three years ago, but that contest was cancelled; Draper coincidentally ended up winning the singles title.

Draper and Rune have suffered an equal 16 losses so far this year, but the Danish man boasts seven more triumphs than the 22-year-old with 29, while also taking home four ATP tour titles compared to the Briton's one from Stuttgart this year.


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We say: Draper to win in three sets

Both quarter-finalists benefitted from their opponents' fatigue in the last 16, and some may question whether Draper should even be in the quarter-finals after the Auger-Aliassime drama, but the British number one's mental strength cannot be called into question after another come-from-behind win.

We cannot envisage any scenario where this battle does not go the distance, but if Draper can work his serve to devastating effect and nullify Rune at the net, the 22-year-old has our vote to progress to his maiden Masters semi.

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