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Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia - prediction, head-to-head

Sports Mole previews Thursday's French Open semi-final between Iga Swiatek and Beatriz Haddad Maia, including predictions and their head-to-head record.

Women's top seed Iga Swiatek continues her seemingly unstoppable run to another French Open crown when she meets 14th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia in Thursday's semi-final.

The reigning champion continued her spate of dominance against Coco Gauff in the quarter-finals, while Haddad Maia stunned seventh seed Ons Jabeur to reach her first Grand Slam semi-final.


Match preview

Iga Swiatek pictured at the French Open on June 1, 2023© Reuters

In a rematch of the 2022 showpiece event, Swiatek proved that she still had Gauff's number, as the two-time Roland-Garros champion made it seven wins from seven against the American protege with a 6-4 6-2 victory in Wednesday's quarter-final encounter.

Having been afforded the luxury of an extended break due to Lesia Tsurenko's early retirement in their last-16 affair, Swiatek dismantled Gauff in just one hour and 28 minutes, saving four of the five break points she faced while taking an equal amount on the American's serve.

Exhibiting wonderful power and accuracy with the cross-court forehand, Swiatek soared through on her first match point as Gauff found the net, and the world number one now prepares for a fifth major semi-final as her spate of almost unmatched dominance at Roland-Garros continues.

The 22-year-old has not dropped a set all week long, and her 92.9% winning record at the French Open can only be beaten by Margaret Court's 95.2% in the Open Era, but one crucial statistic does not weigh in her favour against Haddad Maia - the head-to-head column.

Beatriz Haddad Maia reacts at the French Open in June 2023© Reuters

A new chapter of Brazilian tennis history has been written on the French clay, as Haddad Maia became her nation's first female player to reach the Roland-Garros semi-finals in the Open Era with a three-set upset of Tunisian seventh seed Jabeur.

The 27-year-old - who had only ever gone as far as the second round in previous major tournaments - clawed her way back into the match following an unsatisfactory start and won a pivotal second-set tie-breaker to clinch a 3-6 7-6[5] 6-1 victory, sealing the deal in two hours and 29 minutes.

Haddad Maia survived a barrage of aces from Jabeur in the second set - six to be exact - while saving eight of the 12 break points she conceded, and the South American was in disbelief as a rare forehand error from Jabeur on match point sent her through.

However, unlike her top-ranked opponent, Haddad Maia's path to the semi-finals has been far from straightforward; the world number 14 has been taken to three sets in each of her last four singles matches since a 6-0 6-1 win over Tatjana Maria in round one, while also trying her hand in the women's doubles event with Victoria Azarenka, going out in round two to Gauff and Jessica Pegula.

Either Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka or Karolina Muchova will be waiting for the victor of Thursday's second last-four affair in the 2023 final, where the number one ranking could very well change hands, but first Swiatek must navigate her way past the Brazilian trailblazer.


Tournament so far

Iga Swiatek:

First round: vs. Cristina Bucsa 6-4 6-0
Second round: vs. Claire Liu 6-4 6-0
Third round: vs. Wang Xinyu 6-0 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Lesia Tsurenko 5-1 ret
Quarter-final: vs. Coco Gauff 6-4 6-2

Beatriz Haddad Maia:

First round: vs. Tatjana Maria 6-0 6-1
Second round: vs. Diana Shnaider 6-2 5-7 6-4
Third round: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 5-7 6-4 7-5
Round of 16: vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-7[3] 6-3 7-5
Quarter-final: vs. Ons Jabeur 3-6 7-6[5] 6-1


Head To Head

Canadian Open (2022) - Last 16: Haddad Maia wins 6-4 3-6 7-5

As previously alluded to, Haddad Maia has the edge on Swiatek from their one previous battle on the WTA circuit, which came in the last 16 of the 2022 Canadian Open in Toronto.

The Brazilian powered her way to a 6-4 3-6 7-5 triumph in exactly three hours and fashioned as many as 19 break points on the day - 15 of which Swiatek saved - but the four she converted proved telling.

An off day on serve for Swiatek played a major part in her downfall, as the 22-year-old posted nine double faults throughout the course of the match and won just 43% of points on her second serve - errors which she will no doubt look to rectify on Thursday.


SM words green background

We say: Iga Swiatek to win in two sets

As eye-catching as Haddad Maia's valiant performances have been, fatigue may catch up to her against a re-energized and ruthless Swiatek, who has been on the court for nowhere near the amount of time that her counterpart has.

With 19 of Haddad Maia's 29 unforced errors against Jabeur coming on her backhand side, Swiatek should exploit such weaknesses against the left-handed South American and book her spot in a third French Open final.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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Iga Swiatek pictured at the French Open on June 1, 2023
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