For the second year running, Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz will pit their wits against one another with the Indian Wells Masters men's singles title on the line on Sunday evening.
Alcaraz, the defending champion, snapped Jannik Sinner's perfect start to 2024 to make the showpiece event, while his Russian foe ended Tommy Paul's hopes of California glory.
Match preview
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The last American singles hope at Indian Wells following Coco Gauff's elimination in the women's event, Paul took a few shots out of the Medvedev playbook during a phenomenal start to their semi-final encounter, where his aggressive style initially paid dividends against last year's runner-up.
However, Medvedev's hard-court prowess soon came to the fore in the evening session, and the 28-year-old also capitalised on an ankle injury to Paul in a 1-6 7-6[3] 6-2 triumph over the 17th seed after two hours and 23 minutes of unmissable action.
After failing to clinch a single hold in the first set, Medvedev was also on the cusp of a collapse in the second set as he let a 4-0 lead slip from his grasp, but after coming up trumps in the tie-breaker, he benefitted from Paul's waning physical condition and reeled off some of his trademark passing shots to progress to his 10th Masters final.
Only three of the Russian's nine previous ATP 1000 trophy matches have seen him fall short, although one of those was in this exact contest during the 2023 Indian Wells showpiece, and a successful revenge mission here would see Medvedev complete the hard-court set of Masters tournaments.
As well as Paul, the 28-year-old has sent Holger Rune, Grigor Dimitrov, Sebastian Korda and Roberto Carballes Baena packing to make his second final of the 2024 season after the Australian Open, but he enters Sunday's tantalising battle having lost each of his last four showpiece matches on the ATP Tour.
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In strikingly similar fashion to his more experienced foe, defending Indian Wells champion Alcaraz also bit back after a calamitous 6-1 first-set reverse against Italian trailblazer Sinner, who came into their semi-final on a 19-match winning streak at the top level, triumphing in 16 out of his 16 matches in 2024 thus far.
The Australian Open champion was looking good for a 20th straight victory on the ATP Tour, but by cutting down on his unforced errors and adopting a more defensive position, Alcaraz's comeback mission was a success as he prevailed 1-6 6-3 6-2 in a rain-affected semi-final.
In a contest which more than lived up to the billing, Alcaraz and Sinner exchanged a number of captivating rallies both at the baseline and the net, but the Spaniard just edged the latter battles with 71% of points won from close range to help him on his way to a first final of the season.
In fact, victory for the 20-year-old on Sunday night would mark his first ATP Tour triumph since winning Wimbledon last year, but he has already joined Boris Becker and Novak Djokovic as just the third under-21 male player to reach back-to-back Indian Wells Masters finals.
The latter was the last man to take home the ATP 1000 crown two years running - actually prevailing three times in a row from 2014 to 2016 - and in another good omen for Alcaraz, Djokovic's first two triumphs in that sequence came against Roger Federer, the first and only time that two men squared off in successive Indian Wells finals.
Tournament so far
Daniil Medvedev:
Second round: vs. Roberto Carballes Baena 6-2 6-3
Third round: vs. Sebastian Korda 6-4 5-7 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Holger Rune 7-5 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Tommy Paul 1-6 7-6[3] 6-2
Carlos Alcaraz:
Second round: vs. Matteo Arnaldi 6-7[5] 6-0 6-1
Third round: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-2 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Fabian Marozsan 6-3 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-3 6-1
Semi-final: Jannik Sinner 1-6 6-3 6-2
Head To Head
ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Alcaraz wins 6-4 6-4
US Open (2023) - Semi-final: Medvedev wins 7-6[3] 6-1 3-6 6-3
Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-3 6-3
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-2
Wimbledon (2021) - Second round: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-1 6-2
Including last year's Indian Wells trophy battle, Alcaraz and Medvedev have already crossed paths on five occasions on the ATP Tour, and the Spaniard just edges the head-to-head record with three wins compared to two for his 28-year-old opponent.
With the title on the line in California last year, Alcaraz comfortably prevailed 6-3 6-2, spookily ending Medvedev's 19-match winning sequence just 12 months before also snapping Sinner's identical triumphant streak, and he also bested his Russian foe en route to Wimbledon glory last year.
Medvedev managed to earn a slice of Grand Slam payback at the US Open in four sets, but the most recent showdown at last year's ATP Finals was also a mostly stress-free affair for Alcaraz, who won in straight sets and saved the only two break points he faced.
We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets
Sinner had some of the answers to Alcaraz's ferocious forehand and deft drop shots in their semi-final, but the Spaniard's tremendous ball-striking eventually proved too hot for the Italian to handle, and a successful change in tactics further demonstrated the defending champion's on-court intelligence.
Medvedev may be the master of defence, but Paul still managed to chalk up 11 break points against the Russian with his front-footed approach - even bringing up a few chances when physically hindered - so we can only picture Alcaraz repeating his trick from 2023 to retain his title in style.
Ben Knapton
