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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Wimbledon semi-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Both aiming to advance to their first-ever men's singles Wimbledon final, top seed Carlos Alcaraz and third seed Daniil Medvedev face off in a tantalising semi-final on Friday.

Alcaraz comfortably dispatched fellow 20-year-old Holger Rune in three sets in the quarter-finals, while Medvedev came through a five-set spectacular with American crowd-pleaser Christopher Eubanks.


Match preview

Carlos Alcaraz reacts at Wimbledon on July 4, 2023© Reuters

A slice of SW19 history was written on Wednesday, as Alcaraz and Rune squared up to one another in the first Wimbledon Open era semi-final between two men aged 21 or under, but the world number one soon underlined his credentials against his fellow up-and-coming protege.

Neither Alcaraz nor Rune are exactly well-versed on grass courts, but the former worked his tremendous forehand and athletic prowess to great effect in a 7-6[3] 6-4 6-4 victory, missing one match point on the Rune serve before coming through one final tricky hold.

The Centre Court crowd are becoming accustomed to the almighty Alcaraz roar, and the world number one's outpouring of emotion was certainly justified; he was far from his brilliant best in the opening set of his quarter-final, but as the nerves eased and the drop shots found their mark, there was no stopping him.

A third successive Grand Slam semi-final now awaits the US Open champion, who was memorably hampered by physical problems in his French Open exit to Novak Djokovic, but Alcaraz is showing few ill-effects from his recent injury battles.

As well as hitting 35 winners and just 13 unforced errors against Rune, Alcaraz also clinched 78% of his points at the net, and the world number one's record for the year stands at 45-4 as he bids to outwit Medvedev's defensive mastery.

Daniil Medvedev reacts at Wimbledon on July 12, 2023© Reuters

Success on British lawns has been particularly hard to come by for Medvedev in recent years, as prior to this year's Wimbledon, the former US Open champion had only ever got as far as the fourth round and was denied entry alongside his fellow Russians and Belarusians in 2022.

Medvedev has been welcomed back with open arms by the SW19 fanbase this year, but the Russian will not hesitate to admit that he was playing the role of pantomime villain in his quarter-final with world number 43 Eubanks, whose magical run captured the hearts and imaginations of tennis fans across the globe.

Having already stunned Stefanos Tsitsipas and Cameron Norrie, Eubanks was on the verge of adding Medvedev to his ever-growing list of scalps, but the 27-year-old came roaring back and dismantled Eubanks in the fifth set to prevail 6-4 1-6 4-6 7-6[4] 6-1.

Despite facing an astonishing 74 winners from the big-hitting Eubanks, Medvedev posted 52 of his own and only made 13 unforced errors compared to Eubanks's 55, while also coming up with 28 aces to send another warning message to the world number one.

No matter what transpires on Friday, both men will depart the English capital with a first-ever Wimbledon semi-final on their CV's, while the victor will either bid to deny Djokovic a 24th Grand Slam title or prevent Italian eighth seed Jannik Sinner from hoisting the trophy aloft.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Jeremy Chardy 6-0 6-2 7-5
Second round: vs. Alexandre Muller 6-4 7-6[2] 6-3
Third round: vs. Nicolas Jarry 6-3 6-7[6] 6-3 7-5
Round of 16: vs. Matteo Berrettini 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Holger Rune 7-6[3] 6-4 6-4

Daniil Medvedev:

First round: vs. Arthur Fery 7-5 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Adrian Mannarino 6-3 6-3 7-6[5]
Third round: vs. Marton Fucsovics 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Jiri Lehecka 6-4 6-2 ret.
Quarter-final: vs. Christopher Eubanks 6-4 1-6 4-6 7-6[4] 6-1


Head To Head

Wimbledon (2021) - Second round: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-1 6-2
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-2

Friday's showdown will mark the third meeting between Alcaraz and Medvedev, who coincidentally first locked horns on the ATP Tour during the second round of Wimbledon two years ago.

That year, an 18-year-old Alcaraz was dominated by Medvedev, who needed just 94 minutes to win in straight sets, remarkably losing just two points on his first serve throughout the match.

The pair would renew hostilities for the second time in the final of this year's Indian Wells Masters, where Alcaraz completed his revenge mission in some style, breaking the Russian three times in a straight-sets success to return to world number one.


SM words green background

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Alcaraz's aggressive and front-footed style versus Medvedev's counter-punching excellence should yield a truly intriguing Centre Court battle on Friday, and the former's domination of Medvedev at Indian Wells proved just how far his game has come since that second-round SW19 defeat.

Medvedev's pace from the baseline will be tested to the limit by Alcaraz's delicate drop shots, and while the Russian can capitalise on any early nerves from his youthful opponent, the world number one should quickly find his feet to advance to a maiden Wimbledon final.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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