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Preview: Matteo Berrettini vs. Holger Rune - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Shanghai Masters second-round match between Matteo Berrettini and Holger Rune, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Former world No. 6 Matteo Berrettini takes on Holger Rune in Saturday's Shanghai Masters second-round battle in their fourth meeting on the ATP Tour.

A thrilling encounter awaits in the round of 64, as a Masters 1000 finalist and a Masters 1000 champion go head-to-head in a match that promises intense competition.


Match preview

Matteo Berrettini reacts at the Tokyo Open on September 25, 2024© Imago

Berrettini returns to Shanghai for the first time since 2019 keen to make a deep run at a Masters 1000 event after several early exits before this tournament.

The Italian came through a tight first-round battle with Christopher O'Connell on Thursday, needing two tiebreaks to get the better of the Australian 7-6 (9), 7-6(6).

The former top-10 player firing timely aces got him out of tight situations and winning 75% of points on his first serve was instrumental to the first-round outcome and a repeat will be welcome against his Danish opponent.

After several tournament-opening defeats at Masters 1000 events, including one against Rune in Cincinnati, Berrettini's recent victory was his first since last year's triumph over Gregoire Barrere at the Canadian Open, thus ending a five-match losing run.

Holger Rune pictured at the Tokyo Open on September 30, 2024© Imago

Having snapped his unwanted streak of defeats, the 28-year-old aims to avenge his three-set exit to the Dane in Cincy, keen to get the better of a player who hit some form in Tokyo before falling to eventual winner Arthur Fils in the semi-final.

The four-time Tour-level champion and winner of the Masters event in Paris two years back is seeking a second success at a 1000 tournament after losses in last year's Monte-Carlo and Rome finals.

Although he faces a fight to avoid a first season without a title since 2021, the world No. 12 is a long way from thinking about triumph in Shanghai ahead of Saturday's Berrettini test.

After several early exits at ATP 1000 events this season, reaching the round of 16 in Canada and semis in Cincy point to a late-season improvement for Rune, and he aims to keep that recent consistency going by avoiding a loss to his Italian opponent.


Tournament so far

Matteo Berrettini:

First round: vs. Christopher O'Connell 7-6[9] 7-6[6]

Holger Rune:

First round: Bye


Head To Head

Cincinnati Masters (2024) - Round of 64: Rune 2-6 6-1 6-4

Acapulco (2023) - Quarter-final: Rune 6-0 1-0 ret

Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 64: Berrettini 6-3 4-6 6-4

Although Berrettini won the pair's first match-up on Tour in 2022, Rune has notched two victories on the trot to lead their head-to-head 2-1.

Previous encounters have been on hard courts, and Saturday will be their fourth on the surface.

Even though he enters the Shanghai tournament ranked 30 places lower than his opponent (44th vs 14th), Berrettini's impressive 10 career titles dwarf Rune's four, suggesting a closer contest than the rankings might indicate.


SM words green background

We say: Rune to win in three sets

Apart from the Acapulco quarter-final last year that ended early due to Berrettini retiring, the Italian's other tussles with Rune have gone the distance and Saturday should be no different.

Having flourished in a recent ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo, we are backing the higher-ranked Danish player to secure a third-round place at the 28-year-old's expense.

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