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Preview: Tommy Paul vs. Tomas Machac - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Shanghai Masters fourth-round match between Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Fresh off his thrilling comeback win over Alejandro Tabilo in round three, Tommy Paul aims for a fourth-round victory against Tomas Machac at the Shanghai Masters on Wednesday.

The American saved five match points against the Chilean player to continue his run at the Masters 1000 event, and he faces an opponent who has overcome a false start to notch four consecutive sets across two rounds ahead of his encounter with the 11th seed.


Match preview

Tommy Paul pictured at the Japan Open on September 28, 2024© Imago

Regardless of how Paul's involvement at the Shanghai Masters plays out, nobody will forget his extraordinary third-round turnaround against Tabilo to notch a 6-7(2), 7-6(6), 6-2 triumph.

The United States player trailed 5-1 in the second set before roaring back to secure an unexpected victory to set up Wednesday's battle with the Czechia player, aiming to match last year's round of 16 run in a rematch of their recent Japan Open tussle.

The 11th seed could not get past Andrey Rublev on that occasion but seeks to outdo Machac in their second match-up on the ATP Tour.

Hoping to continue his strong performance in Masters 1000 events this year, Paul, with semi-final appearances at Indian Wells and Rome already under his belt, is aiming for his third quarter-final by defeating Machac.

The 30th seed is on a roll in Shanghai, having recovered from losing his opening set in his tournament opener against Alejandro Davidovich to win four sets in a row against the Spaniard and Aleksandar Vukic, claiming a 6-4, 6-2 victory over the latter in round three.

That recent success was his eighth at Masters 1000 events this season, and the 23-year-old is seeking to match his Miami run, where he advanced to the last eight before losing to eventual winner Jannik Sinner.

Machac's progress to the fourth round already counts as a success following tournament-opening losses to Alexei Popyrin in Canada and to Max Purcell in Cincinnati before the US Open, but he has built on the recent form that took him to the semis in Tokyo before losing to eventual runner-up Ugo Humbert.

Awaiting the victor of the 30th seed's match with Paul in the quarter-final is a formidable challenge: a clash with the rising star Carlos Alcaraz or the experienced Gael Monfils, and the 23-year-old targets that showdown to continue his fine run.


Tournament so far

Tommy Paul:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Fabio Fognini 6-1 6-3
Third round: vs. Alejandro Tabilo 6-7[2] 7-6[6] 6-2

Tomas Machac:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Alejandro Davidovich 1-6 7-6[3] 6-4
Third round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 6-4 6-2


Head To Head

Japan Open (2024) - Round of 16: Machac 2-6 6-3 7-6(4)

Machac's only meeting with Paul came at the recent Japan Open, with the Czechia player coming from a set down to take the last-16 match in three.

The world No. 13 and 11th seed enters the round-four match with a 41-16 record this year (12-6 at ATP 1000 events), superior to his opponent's 28-16 record (8-5).


SM words green background

We say: Paul to win in three sets

Fuelled by his thrilling comeback against Tabilo, Paul enters his match against Machac with renewed confidence, aiming to even their head-to-head, and we are backing the American to avenge his recent loss in Tokyo.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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