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Preview: Diana Shnaider vs. Jessica Pegula - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Monday's US Open fourth-round match between Diana Shnaider and Jessica Pegula, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Two in-form players, Diana Shnaider and Jessica Pegula, face off in the US Open fourth round on Monday, vying for a quarter-final berth.

The Russian has notched more victories than anyone on the WTA Tour since the start of the grass season (24), and she seeks to avenge her recent loss to the American in the Canadian Open a fortnight back.


Match preview

Diana Shnaider in action at the US Open on August 29, 2024© Imago

Shnaider notched her 24th win since the start of the grass-court season in Saturday's 6-2, 6-2 victory over veteran Sara Errani to advance into the fourth round at Flushing Meadows.

In only the young Russian's second year on Tour, she has twice outdone her best at Slams, with a third-round run at Wimbledon outdoing a pair of round-two performances at last year's Australian Open and French Open.

Without dropping a set in New York, the 20-year-old has now surpassed that commendable performance at the Championships and seeks to advance to a maiden quarter-final in her main draw debut at the US Open.

Having lost recently to Monday's opponent in Toronto, Shnaider's motivation will be higher to stun the in-form Pegula on home turf.

Jessica Pegula in action against Shelby Rogers at the US Open on August 27, 2024© Imago

The No. 6 seed is the undoubted favourite heading into the forthcoming round-four tussle against the 18th seed, keen to continue an incredible form that began in the US Open tune-up tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati.

The 30-year-old won the Canadian Open, beating Monday's opponent in the semi-final, and made it to the final in Cincinnati, only to lose to Aryna Sabalenka in the decider.

Pegula's 13 victories in August are the most on the WTA Tour, while only Shnaider has more wins since the beginning of the grass season (24-19) heading into the American's aim for a second quarter-final appearance in New York and seventh overall at the Majors.

She had also made it this far without dropping a set — making the fourth round after recently dispatching in-form Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3, 6-3 in straight sets in round three — and seeks to keep that run going against her Russian opponent.

While a potential battle with the World No. 1 Iga Swiatek awaits Pegula if she wins on Monday, she cannot afford to look that far ahead against a tricky opponent.


Tournament so far

Diana Shnaider:

First round: vs. Nadia Podoroska 6-0 6-1
Second round: vs. Clara Tauson 6-4 6-4
Third round: vs. Sara Errani 6-2 6-2

Jessica Pegula:

First round: vs. Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 7-6[4] 6-3
Third round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3


Head To Head

Toronto (2024) - Semi-final: Pegula 6-4 6-3

Pegula and Shnaider's only meeting on Tour came in Toronto, a match the American clinched in straight sets.

The talented 20-year-old has three singles titles in her embryonic career — all in 2024 — to her experienced opponent's six, while she came into the final Major of the year with a 42-16 win-loss record to Pegula's 29-10.


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We say: Pegula to win in three sets

While Swiatek, Sabalenka and defending champion Coco Gauff are the leading pair on Tour, Pegula and Shnaider are possibly the in-form outsiders going into the second week of the US Open.

Although Monday's tussle could go either way, the experienced American's know-how at this level should carry her through to another quarter-final appearance in New York.

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