Iga Swiatek's bid to reclaim the US Open title will be tested against home hope Jessica Pegula in Wednesday's quarter-final.
Neither player has dropped a set en route to their last-eight match-up, adding to the intrigue of their forthcoming encounter.
Match preview
© Imago
For much of Monday night's fourth-round match, Liudmila Samsonova played commendably against the World No. 1. However, Swiatek turned the tide at 5-4 on the Russian's serve in set one, breaking to win the set 6-4 and reeling off five extra games to open a 5-0 lead in set two.
Swiatek closed out the match 6-4, 6-1 to defeat the No. 16 seed and extend her advantage in their head-to-head to 4-0 before her last-eight match with the in-form Pegula.
The 2022 champion is back in the tournament's last eight after suffering a round four loss in her title defence in 2023, seeking a second crown in New York and sixth Slam overall.
Although she is near unplayable at the French Open, the 23-year-old statistically flourishes in Queens, where she had an 80% win rate before the ongoing event and has since improved that with her run to this year's quarter-final.
That 83% success rate at the US Open is superior to her Australian Open performance (74%) and Wimbledon (69%), and the Polish star hopes to repeat her 2022 run to notch a second Major in 2024.
© Imago
She must overcome Pegula, who dispatched Diana Shnaider 6-4, 6-2 in Monday's last-16 match on Arthur Ashe, continuing an outstanding run against one of the tour's form players heading into the tournament.
Like Swiatek, Pegula has not dropped a set in her four victories, and she hopes that momentum stands her in good stead against the dominant No. 1 seed, who typically overwhelms opponents when she gets going.
The American No. 6 seed will have the fans onside against the Polish star, a factor the 30-year-old could use in her favour against the five-time Grand Slam champion as she bids for a first semi-final at this level.
Although the six-time quarter-finalist has typically faltered at this stage in the big four events, she hopes to advance at Swiatek's expense at the seventh time of asking this year.
Having notched the WTA 1000 title in Toronto and made it to the final in Cincinnati — where she was beaten by Aryna Sabalenka — the American hopes her current momentum helps to shatter her glass ceiling on Wednesday.
Tournament so far
Iga Swiatek:
First round: vs. Kamilla Rakhimova 6-4 7-6[6]
Second round: vs. Ena Shibahara 6-0 6-1
Third round: vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Liudmila Samsonova 6-4 6-1
Jessica Pegula:
First round: vs. Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 7-6[4] 6-3
Third round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2
Head To Head
Washington (2019) - Round of 16: Pegula 5-7 6-4 6-1
Miami (2022) - Semi-final: Swiatek 6-2 7-5
Frenh Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 6-3 6-2
US Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 6-3 7-6(4)
San Diego (2022) - Semi-final: Swiatek 4-6 6-2 6-2
United Cup (2023) - Semi-final: Pegula 6-2 6-2
Doha (2023) - Final: Swiatek 6-3 6-0
Montreal (2023) - Semi-final: Pegula 6-2 6-7(4) 6-4
WTA Finals (2023) - Final: Swiatek 6-1 6-0
Swiatek and Pegula will meet for a 10th time on Wednesday, with the Polish star leading 6-3 in their head-to-head.
The No. 1 seed has defeated her American opponent in their two Grand Slam match-ups in 2022 — Roland Garros and at this stage in that year's US Open — both in straight sets.
Although Pegula recorded her third victory over Swiatek in their eighth match-up in last year's semi-final in Montreal, the dominant 23-year-old secured a 6-1-6-0 beatdown of the experienced player at last year's WTA Finals to secure the title in just 58 minutes.
We say: Swiatek to win in three sets
Pegula arguably is in the form of her life and would ordinarily be backed for a semi-final berth if she were facing someone else.
Although the American knows what it takes to beat Swiatek on hard courts — her three victories over the Polish star have come on the surface — plumping for the No. 1 seed is typically the safe bet.
We predict a three-set triumph over the No. 6 seed, even if that may require the 30-year-old to generate break points against a player who has faced none in three straight rounds.
