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Preview: Jack Draper vs. Alex de Minaur - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's US Open quarter-final match between Jack Draper and Alex de Minaur, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

First-time quarter-finalist Jack Draper faces Alex de Minaur on Wednesday for a coveted spot in the US Open semi-final.

Although the Australian has experience competing in the last eight, he has never advanced to the last four of a major, which he hopes to achieve at the fourth time of asking.


Match preview

Jack Draper reacts at the Stuttgart Open on June 16, 2024 [IMAGO]© Imago

This season has been commendable for Draper, who won his first ATP Tour title in Stuttgart pre-Wimbledon and now competes in the last eight of a Slam for the first time after becoming the first Brit to reach the US Open quarter-final since Andy Murray in 2016.

Another straight-set triumph in the fourth round against Tomas Machac took the British No. 1 past his Czechia opponent as he sealed a 6-3, 6-1, 6-2 win on Monday.

Both men entered round four without dropping a set, and an extended tussle was anticipated; however, the 22-year-old lefty, who has won 47 of 48 service games, had other ideas.

He exited at this stage last year against Andrey Rublev but was a beneficiary of Carlos Alcaraz's early elimination this time — the pair would have met in the third round — defeating Dutchman Botic van de Zandschulp fairly comfortably before dispatching Machac.

Draper's results in New York were already admirable before this year's run, underscored by a third-round appearance in 2022 before featuring in the fourth 12 months ago, now the leading British player aims for a first semi-final berth.

Alex de Minaur in action at the US Open on August 31, 2024© Imago

He must defeat de Minaur to achieve that aim in the pair's fourth match-up on tour as both seek a maiden last-four appearance at a Grand Slam.

The 10th seed overcame Jordan Thompson in four sets in Monday's all-Australian tussle, claiming a 6-0, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 success at the 30-year-old's expense.

That upshot of that victory means de Minaur has now advanced to three straight quarter-finals in 2024 and fourth overall following a fourth-round run in his home major Down Under at the turn of the year.

Having been beaten by eventual finalist Alexander Zverev in the last eight of the French Open and being forced to withdraw due to a hip injury before his last-eight battle against Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon, the 25-year-old Australian aims to be third-time lucky on Wednesday.

De Minaur has done admirably to come this far in his first singles competition since Wimbledon, and the Australian now seeks to surpass his previous best by defeating an in-form and motivated Draper to reach his first semi-final.


Tournament so far

Jack Draper:

First round: vs. Zhang Zhizhen 6-3 6-0 4-0 ret
Second round: vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta 6-4 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Tomas Machac 6-3 6-1 6-2

Alex de Minaur:

First round: vs. Marcos Giron 6-3 6-4 5-7 6-4
Second round: vs. Otto Virtanen 7-5 6-1 7-6[3]
Third round: vs. Daniel Evans 6-3 6-7[4] 6-0 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Jordan Thompson 6-0 3-6 6-3 7-5


Head To Head

Wimbledon (2022) - Second round: De Minaur 5-7 7-6(0) 6-2 6-3

Tokyo (2023) - Round of 32: De Minaur 4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(1)

Acapulco (2024) - Semi-final: De Minaur 6-3 2-6 4-0 ret

While de Minaur leads their head-to-head 3-0, none of their match-ups have been decided in straight sets.

Their only Slam encounter came in the second round at Wimbledon two years ago, when the Australian overcame a slow start to restore parity in a second-set tie-break and ultimately secured a four-set victory.

Their two other meetings have been on hard courts and have been decided in three sets.


SM words green background

We say: De Minaur to win in five sets

Draper enters Wednesday's quarter-final match with his best chance to snap his 0-3 record against his Australian opponent.

While we expect a closely contested match, we predict De Minaur to edge out the victory in five sets and advance to his maiden Grand Slam semi-final.

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Jack Draper pictured at the US Open on August 31, 2024
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