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Preview: Jannik Sinner vs. Jack Draper - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's US Open semi-final match between Jannik Sinner and Jack Draper, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Despite their friendship off the court, Jannik Sinner and Jack Draper will face off as rivals in Friday's US Open semi-final at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

The Italian avenged his Wimbledon quarter-final loss to Daniil Medvedev by defeating the 2021 champion in their quarter-final match, meaning a new title holder will be crowned this year.


Match preview

Jannik Sinner reacts at the US Open on September 4, 2024© Imago

Despite being world No. 1 and favourite to advance to this year's US Open semi-final, Sinner's last match-up with his Russian opponent could have played on his mind, having fallen to Medvedev in five sets at Wimbledon.

The pair met at the same stage on Wednesday night on Arthur Ashe, with the Italian seeking success over the only previous winner of the final Grand Slam of the year, aiming to progress to his first semi-final at Flushing Meadows.

Although the Italian was backed to win in five sets, he got the job in four to secure a 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 victory over the fifth seed to book a match-up with Draper for a place in Sunday's title match.

Defeating Medvedev in four sets means Sinner has progressed to three Slam semi-finals in 2024, winning the title in Australia and advancing to the last four in Paris only to lose to Carlos Alcaraz before the latest accomplishment.

As the first Italian to reach the US Open semi-final and achieve 10 victories or more over top-10 players in consecutive seasons, the top seed and winner of the recent Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati is determined to secure a coveted spot in the final at the expense of a motivated and in-form British opponent.

Jack Draper in action at the US Open on September 4, 2024© Imago

Draper will not hold back against the world No. 1, and he has no reason to despite Friday's match being his semi-final debut at a Slam.

The 22-year-old had never progressed beyond the fourth round of a Grand Slam before his current run, with his best results this year being second-round appearances at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.

He surpassed his personal best after securing a comfortable triumph over Tomas Machac in the fourth round and continued his outstanding run with a fifth consecutive straight-set win in Wednesday's quarter-final victory over Alex de Minaur.

Beating the Australian 6-3, 7-5, 6-2 snapped his 0-3 losing sequence to secure his place in a first-ever semi-final at this level but the British No. 1 seeks the biggest win of his career on Friday in his second tour-level meeting with the Italian.

Although Draper's run to the semi-final without a set dropped has been commendable, the first-time semi-finalist will head into his match-up with Sinner hoping his battling qualities carry him through what should be a thrilling last-four tussle.


Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Mackenzie McDonald 2-6 6-2 6-1 6-2
Second round: vs. Alex Michelsen 6-4 6-0 6-2
Third round: vs. Christopher O'Connell 6-1 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Tommy Paul 7-6[3] 7-6[5] 6-1
Quarter-final: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-2 1-6 6-1 6-4

Jack Draper:

First round: vs. Zhang Zhizhen 6-3 6-0 4-0 ret
Second round: vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta 6-4 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Tomas Machac 6-3 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Alex de Minaur 6-3 7-5 6-2


Head To Head

Queen's Club (2021) - Round of 32: Draper 7-6(6) 7-6(2)

Interestingly, Draper came out on top in the only match-up between both players, clinching two tight sets in a Wimbledon tune-up in 2021.

The British player needed two tie-breaks to defeat Sinner, possibly foreshadowing the closeness of Friday's encounter.

The top seed has been the leading player on the ATP Tour in 2024, and he unsurprisingly leads Draper for titles won — 5-1 — and has a superior win-loss record — 48-5 to the 25th seed's 25-17.


SM words green background

We say: Sinner to win in four sets

Draper undoubtedly packs a punch, underscored by an outstanding run that has seen the previous second-rounder and one-time fourth-rounder shatter his glass ceiling by reaching the semis in New York.

However, Sinner's superior experience at this level, combined with his controlled aggression and ability to handle adversity, should give him the edge over the one-time tour-level champion and secure a title match against Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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Jack Draper pictured at the US Open in September 2024
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