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Preview: Qinwen Zheng vs. Aryna Sabalenka - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's US Open quarter-final match between Qinwen Zheng and Aryna Sabalenka, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Qinwen Zheng hopes to break her losing streak against Aryna Sabalenka in Tuesday's top-10 quarter-final battle at the US Open.

The Chinese player advanced to consecutive last-eight matches at Flushing Meadows after a high-quality fourth-round match with Donna Vekic and will face the woman who eliminated her at the same stage 12 months back.


Match preview

Qinwen Zheng in action at the Paris Olympics on August 1, 2024© Imago

Zheng beat Vekic in a thrilling three-setter that was just shy of three hours, finishing 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-2 in a rematch of last month's comfortable two-set victory in the gold medal match at the Paris Olympic Games.

Although the round-four encounter had the same outcome, the beaten Croatian competed commendably, with her typical ball-striking and court coverage forcing the best out of herself and her opponent in the latest-ever finish to a women's singles match in US Open history.

The upshot of consecutive quarter-final appearances in New York is a rematch with Sabalenka, who got the better of the then-20-year-old at the same stage in 2023 en route to the Belarusian's run to a first final in Queens.

The Chinese No. 7 seed has not had a straightforward run to her third Slam quarter-final, underscored by two comeback wins in rounds one and two before another three-setter in her recent victory over Vekic.

Zheng has won more Slam matches at the US Open — 10 victories in her third appearance — and an 11th on Tuesday will arguably be her biggest.

Aryna Sabalenka in action at the US Open on August 30, 2024© Imago

Sabalenka seeks to avoid that eventuality, keen to advance into a fourth straight semi-final in New York in her third tour-level match-up against Zheng.

Last year's runner-up won the tune-up WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati, beating Jessica Pegula in the decider to complete a five-match run without dropping a set en route to the success, and she looks to push for this year's title after losing in the 2023 final against Coco Gauff.

Sabalenka's winning sequence without dropping a set was halted in the comeback victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round, even if normal service resumed in Sunday's 6-2, 6-4 triumph over former doubles partner Elise Mertens.

The consistent 26-year-old two-time Grand Slam champion has progressed to the semi-finals in eight of her last 11 main draw appearances at the big four events and pursues a ninth showing in 12 by getting the better of her younger Chinese opponent.

If the No. 2 seed secures the win on Tuesday, a last-four match with Paula Badosa or Emma Navarro will follow; however, the Belarusian cannot look that far ahead and must focus on defeating the motivated Zheng.


Tournament so far

Qinwen Zheng:

First round: vs. Amanda Anisimova 4-6 6-4 6-2
Second round: vs. Erika Andreeva 6-7[3] 6-1 6-2
Third round: vs. Jule Niemeier 6-2 6-1
Round of 16: vs. Donna Vekic 7-6[2] 4-6 6-2

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3
Second round: vs. Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1
Third round: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4


Head To Head

US Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-1 6-4

Australian Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka 6-3 6-2

Sabalenka leads her head-to-head with Zheng 2-0, having notched both victories in the leading events, including the Belarusian's successful title defence Down Under in Australia.

Although the No. 2 seed has not dropped a set in previous match-ups against her younger opponent, Tuesday possibly represents the Chinese player's best chance of laying a glove on last year's runner-up.


SM words green background

We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets

Zheng's impressive serve in New York, generating 48 aces — more than double of anyone remaining in the women's draw — and winning 80% of first-serve points, suggests that she could finally secure a set against the second seed.

Regardless, Sabalenka's problem-solving and controlled aggression should ultimately see her triumph in three against the 21-year-old.

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