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Preview: Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Wimbledon final match between Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

A new women's singles Wimbledon champion will be crowned on Saturday as first-time finalists Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini meet on Centre Court after battling their way through semi-final comebacks.

Both women showcased their fighting qualities to reach the imminent decider, with the Czech player continuing her dominance over Elena Rybakina, while Paolini's match with Donna Vekic will be long remembered.


Match preview

Barbora Krejcikova reacts at Wimbledon on July 8, 2024© Reuters

Rybakina probably woke up the morning after her loss to Krejcikova feeling blue after yet another disappointing defeat to her 28-year-old opponent despite winning the first set.

The No. 4 seed's previous meetings with the 2024 Wimbledon finalist followed the same pattern: claiming the first set but failing to close out the match and ultimately succumbing to a comeback.

Wimbledon was supposed to be the occasion to break that run, considering the 2022 champion held a 19-2 record at the Championships before the semi-final.

However, Krejcikova recovered from a poor start where she trailed 4-0 in the first set, slowly working her way back into the match by saving a glut of break points in the opening two sets to win her third consecutive match against Rybakina, closing it out 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

That fightback means the 2021 French Open champion will compete for her second singles major on Saturday, continuing her incredible run at SW19 where she has dropped just two sets en route to the final.

Having never progressed beyond the fourth round at Wimbledon, the doubles specialist – with ten Grand Slams alongside partners in women's and mixed doubles – aims to become the fourth Czech woman in the Open Era to reign supreme at the Championships, following Jana Novotna, Petra Kvitova, and the 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova.

Jasmine Paolini reacts at Wimbledon on July 11, 2024© Reuters

Standing in the No. 31 seed's path is Paolini, the all-smiles Italian whose pleasant demeanour should not be mistaken for weakness.

The No. 7 seed, like her opponent, has dropped two sets on her way to a first Wimbledon final, following her run to the French Open decider in June, with the second loss of a set coming in a thrilling, record-breaking semi-final against Vekic that kept observers glued to their seats and screens.

The longest women's semi-final match in Wimbledon history lasted for two hours and 51 minutes, surpassing Serena Williams' 2009 victory over Elena Dementieva (2 hours, 49 minutes). Both first-time semi-finalists split the first two sets in which Vekic's powerful hitting secured her the first set, before the seventh seed recovered, showcasing her impressive court coverage and competence on crucial points.

Undeterred by a suspected forearm injury and a wave of emotion, the Croatian player bravely fought off a few Paolini match points, as the 28-year-old Italian appeared to falter slightly in the closing stages, but it was not enough to prevent the seventh seed from claiming a 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(8) victory after a nervy final-set tie-break.

That means she will compete for a maiden Slam title on Saturday, continuing an outstanding run for a player who entered this year's Championships without a win at the All England Club.

Having broken new ground to become the first Italian woman in the Open Era to reach the Wimbledon final, with Slam finals at different majors and 15 wins in the first three major events of the year, she now bids to claim a first Slam title to cap off an incredible 2024 so far.


Tournament so far

Barbora Krejcikova:

First round: vs. Veronika Kudermetova 7-6[4] 6-7[1] 7-5
Second round: vs. Katie Volynets 7-6[6] 7-6[5]
Third round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-0 4-3 ret.
Round of 16: vs. Danielle Collins 7-5 6-3
Quarter-final:vs. Jelena Ostapenko 6-4 7-6[4
Semi-final: vs. Elena Rybakina 3-6 6-3 6-4

Jasmine Paolini:

First round: vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo 7-5 6-3
Second round: vs. Greet Minnen 7-6[5] 6-2
Third round: vs. Bianca Andreescu 7-6[4] 6-1
Round of 16: Madison Keys 6-3 6-7[6] 5-5 ret.
Quarter-final: vs. Emma Navarro 6-2 6-1
Semi-final: vs. Donna Vekic 2-6 6-4 7-6[10-8]


Head To Head

Australian Open (2018) - Qualifying: Krejcikova 6-2 6-1

The only Tour-level match-up between both Wimbledon finalists was in qualifying for the 2018 Australian Open, claimed fairly comfortably by Krejcikova in two.

However, much has changed in the intervening six years, with the Italian enjoying a dream-like run in 2024.


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We say: Paolini to win in three sets

While both players are appearing in their first Wimbledon singles final on Saturday, Krejcikova's experience of winning big titles – albeit in doubles – possibly makes her the favourite.

However, Paolini should seal this one against her 28-year-old opponent. Even though it does not get any easier, the Italian's chastening French Open defeat to Iga Swiatek should be useful against a previous Slam champion in Krejcikova.

Here, she neither faces an opponent as dominant on grass as Swiatek is on clay nor one chasing a third consecutive Roland Garros crown and fourth overall.

Saturday's women's final could go either way — and a case can be made for both — but we are backing the personable Italian to put the loss in Paris behind her and clinch a win against another first-time Wimbledon singles finalist.

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Jasmine Paolini reacts at Wimbledon on July 11, 2024
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