Emma Navarro returns to Centre Court two days after upsetting No. 2 seed Coco Gauff when she takes on Jasmine Paolini in their Wimbledon quarter-final tussle.
The Italian's fourth-round match against Madison Keys ended in unfortunate circumstances for the No. 12 seed, who was forced to retire in arguably the most entertaining women's singles match at this year's Championships, with the No. 7 seed progressing at the expense of the tearful American.
Match preview
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Paolini had never gone beyond the second round at any of the Grand Slams before the turn of the year, but the Italian has reached the fourth round at the Australian Open, final at Roland Garros and is one win away from a Wimbledon semi-final.
The 28-year-old's unexpected ongoing run at SW19 is further admired when her previous visits to the All England Club are analysed: three first-round matches and three tournament-opening defeats.
A player who had compiled a 4-16 record at the Slams heading into 2024 has turned the tide dramatically, with her 13-2 2024 record nothing short of amazing.
Facing Iga Swiatek in her favourite playground on Court Philippe-Chatrier prevented the Italian from possibly notching the title in Paris a few weeks back, but it has not halted her momentum, and she now seeks to reach a first Wimbledon semi-final.
While Paolini felt sadness at Keys's situation last time out — the American retired in tears with the deciding set level at 5-5 — she must look forward, keen to take advantage of the absence of several top seeds.
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Navarro has had a hand in one or two upsets at the ongoing Championships, with her recent straight-sets win over compatriot Gauff following the exits of Swiatek and Ons Jabeur from the previous day.
The American also eliminated Naomi Osaka fairly comfortably in the second round and her 6-4, 6-3 win over the No. 2 seed was stunning, and then some.
Last year's US Open champion had seemingly overcome events of last year, where she suffered the ignominy of losing in the opening round to countrywoman Sofia Kenin, to dispatch opponents in rounds one, two and three, only to hit a brick wall against Navarro.
Navarro came to the net nine times and was rewarded each time as she forced a glut of unforced errors from Gauff's forehand wing, underscoring her nous in defeating the favourite on Centre Court.
However, like Paolini, the world No. 17 has never made it this far at Wimbledon, but it remains to be seen if the Italian's recent experience of a deep Slam run makes the difference.
Tournament so far
Jasmine Paolini:
First round: vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo 7-5 6-3
Second round: vs. Greet Minnen 7-6[5] 6-2
Third round: vs. Bianca Andreescu 7-6[4] 6-1
Round of 16: vs. Madison Keys 6-3 6-7[6] 5-5 ret.
Emma Navarro:
First round: vs. Wang Qiang 6-0 6-2
Second round: vs. Naomi Osaka 6-4 6-1
Third round: vs. Diana Shnaider 2-6 6-3 6-4
Round of 16:vs. Coco Gauff 6-4 6-3
Head To Head
San Diego (2023) - Round of 32: Navarro 7-5 6-0
Doha (2023) - Round of 64: Navarro 6-3 7-5
Miami Masters (2024) - Round of 32: 6-2 3-6 6-0
Navarro holds a 3-0 record over Paolini, but those dominant runs count for little at this year's Championships, underlined by Katie Boulter's round two loss to Harriet Dart — Boulter led 6-1 in their head-to-head — and Swiatek's defeat by Yulia Putintseva, whom she had beaten in all four previous meetings before their third-round match.
The American hopes to avoid a similar fate against an opponent she dominated in San Diego last year and twice bested in 2024 — all three meetings have been in nine months, with six of the seven sets in those match-ups going Navarro's way.
We say: Paolini to win in three sets
Paolini became the first Italian woman to reach the quarter-finals of Roland Garros and Wimbledon in the same season after advancing at the injured Keys' expense, and her ongoing run at the Slams should see her edge this one against her last-eight debuting opponent.
Even if the precedent points to a straightforward triumph for Navarro, earlier rounds in the women's draw mean we know better than to predict a routine win for the American.
