Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff face off in Friday's second semi-final at the WTA Finals, keen to respond after defeats in their final round-robin matches.
With Iga Swiatek eliminated, a new champion will be crowned this year, and the first and third seeds in Riyadh aim to clinch their place in the championship match against Qinwen Zheng or Barbora Krejcikova.
Match preview
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Although Sabalenka and Gauff lost the third match in the round-robin, Sabalenka's 4–6, 6–3, 1–6 defeat to Elena Rybakina comes with the caveat of the Belarusian not requiring a victory against the Kazakhstani, having sealed progress from the Purple Group after wins over Zheng and Jasmine Paolini.
The upshot of Swiatek's loss to Gauff in the Orange Group also meant the 26-year-old was guaranteed the year-end No. 1 ranking, further diminishing any motivation she might have had before the dead rubber meeting.
Thus, perhaps observers should read little into the first seed's fourth loss to Rybakina, with the Belarusian anticipated to return to her best level against an opponent she has faced several times on the WTA Tour.
Friday's match-up will be their ninth, and Sabalenka will back herself to end 2024 undefeated against the American No. 1 player after victories Down Under in Australia and recently in Wuhan.
Including the Rybakina loss, the women's No. 1 is 22-2 since her quarter-final exit to Amanda Anisimova in Toronto, underscoring her form and why she is tipped by many to claim the title in Saudi Arabia.
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Standing in her path to Saturday's championship match is Gauff, whose form heading into the year-end event was among the most impressive, along with Sabalenka and Zheng.
Although the American lost in three sets in their recent match-up in Wuhan, that loss should not dampen the 20-year-old's spirits following a commendable return to form during the Asian swing after Matt Daly joined her team.
Gauff entered the tournament in Riyadh with a 9-1 record, boosted by a winning run that included her second WTA 1000 title in Beijing; however, her streak was snapped by Sabalenka, preventing the 2023 US Open champion from reaching 10 consecutive victories.
The eight-time tour-level singles champion's ambition to claim her ninth title at the Finals was encouraged after defeating Swiatek in two sets in the Orange Group, having previously claimed two sets from 25 across previous meetings with the Polish superstar.
However, familiar shortcomings resurfaced in her final round-robin match against Krejcikova on Thursday, evidenced by a staggeringly high 40 unforced errors and inability to dispatch break point opportunities (1/12) in the 5-7, 4-6 loss to the Wimbledon champion.
Although beating Sabalenka would require playing clinically on the big points, it is easier said than done for Gauff, whose Jekyll and Hyde execution means you never know what to expect on the court.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
Round Robin: vs. Qinwen Zheng 6-3 6-4
Round Robin: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-3 7-5
Round Robin: vs. Elena Rybakina 4–6 6–3 1–6
Coco Gauff:
Round Robin: vs. Jessica Pegula 6-3 6-2
Round Robin: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-3 6-4
Round Robin: vs. Barbora Krejcikova 5-7 4-6
Head To Head
Wuhan Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 1-6 6-4 6-4
Australian Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 7-6 6-4
US Open (2023) - Final: Gauff 2-6 6-3 6-2
BNP Paribas Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-4 6-0
National Bank Open (2022) - Third Round: Gauff 7-5 4-6 7-6
Internazional BNA D'Italia (2021) - Third Round: Gauff 7-5 6-3
J&T Banka Ostrava Open (2020) - Second Round: Sabalenka 1-6 7-5 7-6
The Top Seed Open (2020) - Second Round: Gauff 7-6 4-6 6-4
Sabalenka and Gauff have split their eight meetings, with the winner taking the lead in their head-to-head.
The American player won their first match four years ago in Lexington and held a 3-1 advantage, but the 26-year-old has notched three of their previous four encounters, winning both matches in 2024 — semi-finals at the Australian Open and in Wuhan.
Gauff's only success in the current stretch came in New York when the 20-year-old claimed her only Grand Slam victory on home soil, beating Sabalenka despite losing the opening set.
The Belarusian is seeking her 12th top-10 victory in 2024 and 41st overall, while her opponent seeks a sixth triumph over the elite group this season and 22nd overall.
We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets
Although Gauff should take confidence from defeating her bete noire in the round-robin, Sabalenka's adeptness on the big points and swift recovery from setbacks on the court should see the No. 1 player advance to the championship match in Riyadh.
