Italian WTA Finals debutant Jasmine Paolini takes on the returning Elena Rybakina in Saturday's Round-Robin match.
A breakthrough season for the two-time WTA Tour champion has seen her rise to the lofty heights of fourth, and she aims to end the season positively in Riyadh.
Match preview
© Imago
Not even in her wildest dreams was participation at the year-end Finals a possibility for a player whose first time ending in the top 100 was 2019, when she finished 96th.
She ended in the same position the following season before coming in 53rd, 62nd and 30th in the following years before her storming 2024 campaign.
The season was undoubtedly the finest of Paolini's career, as she won her first WTA 1000 tournament in Dubai and advanced to the championship matches at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, falling short to Iga Swiatek in the former and losing to Barbora Krejcikova at the Championships.
Although the 28-year-old has not made a decider since her defeat at SW19, she seeks a third tour victory over Rybakina to start the round-robin on a winning note.
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Her opponent is a known quantity on the tour, with her booming serve an undoubted weapon whenever she executes impeccably.
However, Rybakina's absence from the tour has raised questions about her level heading into the week-long competition in Riyadh, having not played in any capacity since the US Open.
The eight-time tour-level champion's three titles in the year's opening four months have aided her second consecutive appearance at the year-end tournament, and she seeks to better 2023's group stage elimination.
The world No. 5 announced Goran Ivanisevic's addition to her team on the eve of the tournament, hoping to overcome a year plagued by health issues and withdrawals by finishing strongly.
Having not played competitive tennis in nearly three months, Rybakina faces a daunting task against this year's darling of the WTA Tour.
Head To Head
French Open (2024) - Quarter-final: Paolini 6-2 4-6 6-4
Stuttgart (2024) - Quarter-final: Rybakina 6-3 5-7 6-3
Cincinnati (2023) - Round of 16: Paolini 4-6 5-2 ret.
Rome (2023) - Round of 64:Rybakina 7-6 6-1
Both women have faced off four times on the tour, with their head-to-head tied 2-2.
They have played two titanic three-setters this season, although Rybakina's dip since that last-eight battle at Roland Garros raises doubts about her level.
Paolini is 5-15 against top-10 players, with two wins coming in 2024 — against Ons Jabeur in Stuttgart and Rybakina at the French Open.
We say: Paolini to win in two sets
Although both women have played thrilling three-setters, this season, Rybakina's extended absence means she enters the Finals in Riyadh with question marks hanging over her.
Thus, we back Paolini to win in straight sets at the expense of the returning Kazakhstani.
