Cagliari and Spezia square off in Serie A on Sunday evening with just one point separating the sides in the standings.
While the home team lost out to Juventus last week, the visitors have put together a two-match unbeaten streak in the top flight.
Match preview
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After an indifferent campaign under more than one manager during 2019-20, everyone associated with Cagliari is hoping that Eusebio Di Francesco can bring them the stability that they desire.
As it stands, it is so far so good for the former Roma boss, whose new club sit in 11th position in the table despite having to deal with one of the toughest starts to the campaign.
While defeats against Lazio, Atalanta BC and Juventus came as little surprise, victories over Torino, Crotone and Sampdoria mean that Gli Isolani have something to work with ahead of the winter period.
Although there is an equal distance between the top five and the relegation zone, Di Francesco will acknowledge that his primary focus is ensuring that the club do not become embroiled in a battle at the wrong end of the table.
Defeating a team with the same objectives will go some way to easing any lingering pressure, but Spezia will travel to the Sardegna Arena with the feeling that they can cause another shock.
In their first ever top-flight campaign, they have only lost out to three of the top four teams in the division, while collecting wins against Udinese and Benevento.
Last weekend's goalless draw at home to Atalanta BC has moved the club four points clear of the drop zone, far better than Vincenzo Italiano would have been expecting at this stage of the season.
The Little Eagles have also gone over 200 minutes without conceding a league goal from open play, the last of which came against Juve on November 1.
Cagliari Serie A form: LWWLWL
Cagliari form (all competitions): WWLWLW
Spezia Serie A form: LDDLWD
Spezia form (all competitions): DWLWDW
Team News
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Having made mass changes for the Coppa Italia tie with Bologna, Italiano is expected to revert to the side which impressed against Atalanta.
Gennaro Acampora and Giulio Maggiore are alternatives in midfield if Italiano opts to make changes to his team.
Cagliari will have to make do without Giovanni Simeone after the Argentine recorded a positive coronavirus test.
Leonardo Pavoletti or Alberto Cerri will get the nod in attack, the latter boosting his case with a goal in the Coppa Italia on Wednesday night.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Zappa, Walukiewicz, Klavan, Tripaldelli; Marin, Rog; Nandez, Pedro, Sottil; Cerri
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Vignali, Terzi, Erlic, Bastoni; Maggiore, Ricci, Estevez; Farias, Nzola, Gyasi
We say: Cagliari 2-2 Spezia
Newcomers Spezia have shown on more than one occasion this season that they are capable of upsetting the odds. However, Cagliari can match them for goals and being relatively open at the back, resulting in us predicting an entertaining draw at the weekend.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
