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DFB-Pokal | Second Round
Oct 18, 2022 at 5pm UK
Stadion Lohmühle
Mainz logo

Lubeck
0 - 3
Mainz


Grupe (38')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Hack (16'), Ingvartsen (43'), Barkok (88')
Fulgini (9'), Caricol (28')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Lubeck and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lubeck

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Last Game: Lubeck 1-0 Hansa Rostock
Saturday, July 30 at 2.31pm in DFB-Pokal
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Mainz 05

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Werder Bremen 0-2 Mainz
Saturday, October 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Lubeck 0-2 Mainz 05

 We expect Mainz to build on a professional performance in Bremen at the weekend by securing another important victory away from home. Lubeck are likely to make it difficult for Svensson's side, who should have too much quality and discipline to succumb to a shock defeat. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Lubeck had a probability of 32.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Lubeck win was 1-0 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
LubeckDrawMainz 05
32.36% (0.010999999999996 0.01) 25.25% (0.0020000000000024 0) 42.39% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 55.94% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.4% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)47.6% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.19% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)69.8% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Lubeck Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.08% (0.0020000000000095 0)27.92% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.46% (0.0039999999999978 0)63.54% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.61% (-0.012 -0.01)22.39% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.1% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)55.89% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Lubeck 32.36%
    Mainz 05 42.39%
    Draw 25.24%
LubeckDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 7.98% (0.0029999999999992 0)
2-1 @ 7.61% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-0 @ 5.09% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 3.24% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.42%
3-0 @ 2.16% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 1.03% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 32.36%
1-1 @ 11.93%
0-0 @ 6.25% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-2 @ 5.7%
3-3 @ 1.21%
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.24%
0-1 @ 9.35% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
1-2 @ 8.93% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 7% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 4.46% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 3.49% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.84% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 1.67% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-4 @ 1.31% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 42.39%

How you voted: Lubeck vs Mainz

Lubeck
21.2%
Draw
15.2%
Mainz 05
63.6%
33
rhs 2.0
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