Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-7 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
29% ( 1.05) | 26.47% ( 0.18) | 44.52% ( -1.23) |
Both teams to score 50.44% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.99% ( -0.17) | 54.01% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.55% ( -0.14) | 75.44% ( 0.14) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.49% ( 0.72) | 33.51% ( -0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.85% ( 0.78) | 70.15% ( -0.78) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.86% ( -0.66) | 24.14% ( 0.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.55% ( -0.95) | 58.45% ( 0.95) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 4.84% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.4% Total : 29% | 1-1 @ 12.57% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.47% | 0-1 @ 11.49% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.27) 1-3 @ 4.23% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 3.87% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.63% Total : 44.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 36 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 83 | 22 | 61 | 93 |
2 | Barcelona | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 76 |
3 | GironaGirona | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 75 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 35 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 70 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 57 | 35 | 22 | 62 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 55 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Villarreal | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 51 |
9 | Valencia | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 48 |
10 | Getafe | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
12 | Sevilla | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 41 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 37 |
15 | Mallorca | 36 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 36 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 35 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 34 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 35 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 49 | -25 | 29 |
R | Granada | 35 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 36 | 68 | -32 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 35 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 35 | 70 | -35 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |