Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 52.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 22.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
22.85% ( 1.19) | 24.35% ( 0.22) | 52.8% ( -1.42) |
Both teams to score 51.47% ( 0.83) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.97% ( 0.34) | 50.02% ( -0.34) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28% ( 0.3) | 72% ( -0.3) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.47% ( 1.34) | 36.53% ( -1.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.68% ( 1.32) | 73.32% ( -1.33) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.1% ( -0.42) | 18.9% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.61% ( -0.7) | 50.39% ( 0.7) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
1-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.11) Other @ 1.79% Total : 22.85% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.35% | 0-1 @ 11.5% ( -0.31) 1-2 @ 9.65% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 9.58% ( -0.39) 1-3 @ 5.36% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 5.32% ( -0.29) 2-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 2.22% ( -0.15) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.12% Total : 52.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |