Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 19.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
Result | ||
Fiorentina | Draw | Cagliari |
56.5% ( 0.77) | 23.62% ( 0.03) | 19.87% ( -0.8) |
Both teams to score 49.61% ( -1.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.56% ( -1.11) | 50.44% ( 1.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.63% ( -0.99) | 72.37% ( 0.99) |
Fiorentina Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.34% ( -0.13) | 17.66% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.72% ( -0.22) | 48.28% ( 0.22) |
Cagliari Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.25% ( -1.48) | 39.75% ( 1.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.58% ( -1.39) | 76.42% ( 1.39) |
Score Analysis |
Fiorentina | Draw | Cagliari |
1-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.49) 2-0 @ 10.55% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 56.5% | 1-1 @ 11.22% 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.88% Total : 23.61% | 0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.33% Total : 19.87% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 36 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 86 | 19 | 67 | 92 |
2 | AC Milan | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 74 |
3 | Bologna | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 67 |
4 | Juventus | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 67 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 39 | 26 | 63 |
6 | Roma | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 63 | 44 | 19 | 60 |
7 | Lazio | 36 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 59 |
8 | Fiorentina | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 53 |
9 | Napoli | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 51 |
10 | Torino | 36 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 50 |
11 | Genoa | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 46 |
12 | Monza | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 45 |
13 | Lecce | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 37 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 34 |
15 | Udinese | 36 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 33 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
17 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 32 |
18 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 32 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 36 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 42 | 72 | -30 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 36 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 76 | -48 | 16 |
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