Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 57.11%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 20.75%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.79%) and 0-2 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.39%), while for a Genoa win it was 2-1 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
Genoa | Draw | AC Milan |
20.75% | 22.14% | 57.11% |
Both teams to score 55.72% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.02% | 42.98% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.62% | 65.38% |
Genoa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.43% | 34.57% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.71% | 71.29% |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.17% | 14.83% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.86% | 43.14% |
Score Analysis |
Genoa | Draw | AC Milan |
2-1 @ 5.52% 1-0 @ 5.45% 2-0 @ 2.89% 3-1 @ 1.95% 3-2 @ 1.87% 3-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.05% Total : 20.75% | 1-1 @ 10.39% 2-2 @ 5.27% 0-0 @ 5.13% 3-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.13% | 1-2 @ 9.92% 0-1 @ 9.79% 0-2 @ 9.34% 1-3 @ 6.31% 0-3 @ 5.94% 2-3 @ 3.35% 1-4 @ 3.01% 0-4 @ 2.83% 2-4 @ 1.6% 1-5 @ 1.15% 0-5 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.79% Total : 57.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 57 |
9 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
R | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
> Serie A Full Table |