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World Cup
Mali national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage
Jun 6, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade 26 Mars
Ghana national football team

Mali
1 - 2
Ghana

Doumbia (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Nuamah (58'), Ayew (90+4')
Owusu (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Mali and Ghana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Mali 2-0 Nigeria
Tuesday, March 26 at 9pm in International Friendlies

Ghana

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Uganda 2-2 Ghana
Tuesday, March 26 at 4pm in International Friendlies

We said: Mali 2-1 Ghana

 Mali have made major strides forward in recent years and are now up to 44th in the world, according to FIFA Rankings, which is higher than the likes of Norway and Greece, and just one behind African powerhouse Algeria. There is genuine belief among Eagles' fans that this tournament will lead them to their first-ever World Cup appearance, and we feel they will continue their upward trajectory with a victory against the Black Stars on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Ghana had a probability of 20.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Ghana win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
MaliDrawGhana
54.91% (1.22 1.22) 24.45% (-0.364 -0.36) 20.63% (-0.861 -0.86)
Both teams to score 48.28% (-0.122 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.21% (0.447 0.45)52.78% (-0.452 -0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.58% (0.38 0.38)74.41% (-0.387 -0.39)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.86% (0.649 0.65)19.13% (-0.654 -0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.22% (1.065 1.07)50.78% (-1.071 -1.07)
Ghana Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.7% (-0.637 -0.64)40.29% (0.632 0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.08% (-0.583 -0.58)76.92% (0.578 0.58)
Score Analysis
    Mali 54.91%
    Ghana 20.63%
    Draw 24.44%
MaliDrawGhana
1-0 @ 12.75% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-0 @ 10.54% (0.24 0.24)
2-1 @ 9.58% (0.057 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.81% (0.249 0.25)
3-1 @ 5.28% (0.138 0.14)
4-0 @ 2.4% (0.149 0.15)
3-2 @ 2.4% (0.023 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.18% (0.101 0.1)
4-2 @ 0.99% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 54.91%
1-1 @ 11.58% (-0.17 -0.17)
0-0 @ 7.71% (-0.138 -0.14)
2-2 @ 4.36% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 24.44%
0-1 @ 7.01% (-0.25 -0.25)
1-2 @ 5.27% (-0.17 -0.17)
0-2 @ 3.19% (-0.171 -0.17)
1-3 @ 1.6% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-3 @ 1.32% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-3 @ 0.97% (-0.07 -0.07)
Other @ 1.29%
Total : 20.63%

How you voted: Mali vs Ghana

Mali
54.1%
Draw
13.1%
Ghana
32.8%
61
Head to Head
Oct 9, 2020 6pm
Friendlies 1
Mali
3-0
Ghana
Traore (3'), Bilal Toure (49'), Haidara (75')

Lomotey (57')
Jan 21, 2017 4pm
Group Stage
Ghana
1-0
Mali
Gyan (22')
Gyan (82')
Feb 9, 2013 6pm
Third-Place Playoff
Mali
3-1
Ghana
Samassa, Keita, Diarra
Asamoah
> Match Report
Jan 24, 2013 3pm
Group Stage
Ghana
1-0
Mali
Mubarak
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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