MX23RW : Thursday, May 9 17:27:46| >> :300:86500:86500:
Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Wellington Phoenix
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western United
Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 22
Apr 1, 2023 at 3am UK
Westpac Stadium
Melbourne Victory

Wellington
1 - 2
Victory

Zawada (25')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Fornaroli (58'), Da Silva (76')
Chapman (50'), Ikonomidis (77'), Fornaroli (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Last Game: Adelaide United 5-1 Wellington
Friday, March 17 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Last Game: Victory 2-0 Central Coast
Sunday, March 19 at 6am in Australian A-League

We said: Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Melbourne Victory

 Wellington Phoenix might be the favourites heading into this one due to their league position, but with the visitors having secured a win last weekend and with more to fight for, they could secure a point. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 40.49%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne Victory
34.43% (-0.377 -0.38) 25.08% (0.072000000000003 0.07) 40.49% (0.302 0.3)
Both teams to score 57.15% (-0.337 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.69% (-0.404 -0.4)46.31% (0.401 0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.4% (-0.382 -0.38)68.59% (0.37899999999999 0.38)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.98% (-0.41 -0.41)26.02% (0.408 0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.94% (-0.557 -0.56)61.05% (0.55399999999999 0.55)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.25% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)22.75% (0.023 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.57% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)56.43% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 34.43%
    Melbourne Victory 40.49%
    Draw 25.08%
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne Victory
1-0 @ 7.97% (0.042000000000001 0.04)
2-1 @ 7.94% (-0.057 -0.06)
2-0 @ 5.36% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-1 @ 3.56% (-0.068 -0.07)
3-2 @ 2.64% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-0 @ 2.41% (-0.044 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.2% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 34.43%
1-1 @ 11.8% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 5.92% (0.098999999999999 0.1)
2-2 @ 5.88% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.3% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.08%
0-1 @ 8.77% (0.141 0.14)
1-2 @ 8.74% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
0-2 @ 6.49% (0.1 0.1)
1-3 @ 4.31% (0.012 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.2% (0.046 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.9% (-0.026 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.6% (0.004 0)
0-4 @ 1.19% (0.016 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.07% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 40.49%

How you voted: Wellington vs Victory

Wellington Phoenix
72.7%
Draw
18.2%
Melbourne Victory
9.1%
11
Head to Head
Feb 3, 2023 8.45am
Victory
3-1
Wellington
Fornaroli (32'), Brimmer (54'), Juric (90+1')
Fornaroli (70')
Zawada (13')
Elliot (25'), Surman (52')
Apr 29, 2022 10.45am
Victory
3-1
Wellington
D'Agostino (2'), Brimmer (68' pen.), Rojas (78')
Broxham (24'), D'Agostino (39'), Nigro (43'), Rojas (54')
Sandoval (26' pen.)
Wootton (13'), Surman (71'), Pennington (77')
Feb 9, 2022 8.05am
Wellington
1-0
Victory
Piscopo (74')
Ball (57'), Fenton (76'), Piscopo (90')
Mar 24, 2021 8.05am
Wellington
4-1
Victory
Hemed (11'), Ball (36'), Davila (62'), Lewis (68')
Fenton (74')
Kamsoba (76')
Traore (65'), Kruse (70'), Butterfield (90+1')
Feb 24, 2021 8.05am
Victory
2-0
Wellington
Gestede (45+3', 49')
Broxham (34'), Shotton (37'), Markovic (55'), Anderson (62')

Muratovic (18'), McGarry (25'), Fenton (51')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast27174649272255
2Wellington PhoenixWellington27158442261653
3Melbourne VictoryVictory271012543331042
4Sydney FCSydney FC271251052411141
5Macarthur2711884548-341
6Melbourne CityMelbourne City271161050381239
7Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney27114124448-437
8Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United2795135253-132
9Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar2786134255-1330
10Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets27610113947-828
11Western UnitedWestern Utd2775153655-1926
12Perth GloryPerth Glory2757154669-2322
> Australian A-League Full Table


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!