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Africa Cup of Nations
Malawi national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Mar 28, 2023 at 2pm UK
 
Egypt national football team

Malawi
0 - 4
Egypt


Petro (70')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Hamed (4'), Marmoush (16'), Salah (20'), Sayed (49')
Marmoush (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Malawi and Egypt, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Egypt 2-0 Malawi
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Egypt

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Egypt 2-0 Malawi
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Malawi 0-2 Egypt

 Egypt showed their class when the sides squared off in last week's reverse fixture and will be looking to complete the group double over Malawi. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two nations, we are tipping the Pharaohs to come away with another comfortable win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 24.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.75%) and 1-2 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.56%), while for a Malawi win it was 1-0 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Egypt would win this match.

Result
MalawiDrawEgypt
24.59% (0.539 0.54) 30.02% (0.087 0.09) 45.39% (-0.624 -0.62)
Both teams to score 38.43% (0.209 0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
32.27% (0.042000000000002 0.04)67.73% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
14.25% (0.029 0.03)85.75% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.02% (0.54600000000001 0.55)44.98% (-0.545 -0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.08% (0.433 0.43)80.92% (-0.431 -0.43)
Egypt Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.85% (-0.316 -0.32)30.15% (0.318 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.7% (-0.382 -0.38)66.3% (0.383 0.38)
Score Analysis
    Malawi 24.59%
    Egypt 45.39%
    Draw 30.01%
MalawiDrawEgypt
1-0 @ 10.83% (0.15 0.15)
2-1 @ 5.19% (0.103 0.1)
2-0 @ 4.33% (0.123 0.12)
3-1 @ 1.38% (0.048 0.05)
3-0 @ 1.15% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 24.59%
0-0 @ 13.56% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-1 @ 12.99% (0.07 0.07)
2-2 @ 3.11% (0.035 0.04)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 30.01%
0-1 @ 16.26% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-2 @ 9.75% (-0.187 -0.19)
1-2 @ 7.79% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-3 @ 3.9% (-0.11 -0.11)
1-3 @ 3.11% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.24% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 1.17% (-0.043 -0.04)
1-4 @ 0.93% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 1.24%
Total : 45.39%

How you voted: Malawi vs Egypt

Malawi
32.3%
Draw
9.7%
Egypt
58.1%
31
Head to Head
Mar 24, 2023 7pm
Egypt
2-0
Malawi
Salah (20'), Marmoush (45+1')
Hamed (68'), Abdelmonem (77'), Hegazy (79'), Kahraba (90')

Davie (90+4')
rhs 2.0
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