Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elfsborg win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Kalmar had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elfsborg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Kalmar win was 0-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Elfsborg would win this match.