MX23RW : Thursday, October 31 23:26:37| >> :300:86500:86500:
Augsburg logo
Leverkusen logo
Bayern logo
Dortmund logo
Borussia Monchengladbach logo
Eintracht Frankfurt logo
Freiburg logo
Heidenheim
Hoffenheim logo
Mainz logo
Leipzig logo
Stuttgart
Union Berlin logo
VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen logo
Wolfsburg
Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 12
Nov 21, 2021 at 4.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Koln logo

Mainz 05
1 - 1
FC Koln

Burkardt (41')
Bell (42'), Szalai (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Ozcan (47')
Duda (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and FC Koln, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Two expected relegation candidates in the Bundesliga go head to head at the Opel Arena on Sunday looking to build on impressive starts to the campaign. Mainz 05 have continued on from their miraculous finish to the 2020-21 season and find themselves in and around the European places, whilst FC Koln sit comfortably in midtable following their near-relegation last campaign.

Match preview

After achieving the greatest escape that the Bundesliga has ever seen last season, Mainz boss Bo Svensson has picked up from where his side left off and utilised the momentum to lead the Carnival side to unknown territory in the table. Back-to-back league victories preceded a 1-1 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach prior to the international break, to leave Die Nullfunfer sitting in seventh heading into the return to domestic football at the weekend. That draw leaves Mainz just one point off RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen in fifth and sixth, and just two points off Wolfsburg in a Champions League spot, with supporters dreaming of an unexpected European adventure following years of relegation battles. Back in January it had appeared Mainz were destined for the drop to the 2.Bundesliga, but since Svensson's arrival, the turnaround has been nothing short of incredible. Fast forward to this campaign, and the wheels appeared to have fallen off from their strong start to the campaign, with three straight defeats suffered in late September to early October, although these did arrive at the hands of European sides Leverkusen, Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund. However, Mainz quickly returned to winning ways with a 4-1 hammering of Augsburg, followed by a 2-1 success at Arminia Bielefeld and the draw with Gladbach immediately prior to the two-week break. As a sign of where they have risen to, Svensson and his side will have been disappointed that they were restricted to just a point against the Foals, with their second-half hammering of their opponents perhaps deserving of all three points once Silvan Widmer had equalised. Meanwhile, after only avoiding relegation to the second tier via a playoff victory over Holstein Kiel at the end of the 2020-21 season, Koln have impressed at the beginning of the new Bundesliga campaign themselves. After 11 matchdays, Steffen Baumgart's side occupy a healthy position of 11th heading into their trip to Mainz on Sunday, which leaves them just three points behind their opponents. Baumgart has been a revelation at the Billy Goats since his arrival from SC Paderborn in the summer, despite suffering some setbacks in recent weeks. Just one win in their last eight Bundesliga outings has taken a little shine off their bright start, but a mid-table spot at this stage of the campaign will have supporters hopeful of a more successful season following the struggles of the previous four. Thirty-three-year-old striker Anthony Modeste has been the player who has benefitted the most from Baumgart's guidance, with the Frenchman netting a sensational 10 goals in 13 competitive appearances already. It was his second brace in three games that earned Koln a 2-2 draw with Union Berlin last time out, with one of the goals being a late equaliser to earn a deserved point ahead of the international break.
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
Mainz 05 form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
FC Koln Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
FC Koln form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D

Team News

Mainz have just the two injury absentees to deal with ahead of Sunday's return to domestic action, with central defender Jeremiah St Juste and left wing-back Anderson Lucoqui being ruled out through shoulder and knee injuries respectively. Alexander Hack will continue to fill in at the heart of the defence, whilst Aaron Martin will continue on the left of the 3-5-2 setup after some impressive performances in recent weeks following his injury-hit start to the campaign. Forwards Adam Szalai and Marcus Ingvartsen will have to continue to settle for places on the bench due to the form of Karim Onisiwo and Jonathan Burkardt up front. As for Koln, Baumgart has two injuries to consider himself ahead of the trip to Mainz, although Jannes Horn continues to be the only confirmed absentee. The defender returned from a long-term hip injury to feature for an hour in a friendly during the break, but he will continue to regain his fitness in the coming weeks prior to a return to the first team. Ellyes Skhiri has not been ruled out but it is highly unlikely that he will feature yet due to the shin injury that has kept him out of action since the last international break. The defensive midfielder continues to be a big miss in the centre of the pitch, but Salih Ozcan has impressed in his absence so should continue to deputise for him on Sunday. Mainz 05 possible starting lineup: Zentner; Bell, Hack, Niakhate; Widmer, Lee, Kohr, Boetius, Martin; Onisiwo, Burkardt FC Koln possible starting lineup: T Horn; Schmitz, Kilian, Czichos, Hector; Ljubicic; Kainz, Duda, Ozcan; Uth, Modeste

We said: Mainz 05 1-1 FC Koln

These sides appear evenly matched ahead of their encounter on Sunday, and because of this, we are predicting a tight affair finishing in a score draw. Mainz could easily nick it though considering they are on the better run of form, but the international break will have benefitted Koln and we can see them coming away with a point here.
Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawFC Koln
44.25%25.28%30.47%
Both teams to score 55.02%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.57%48.43%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.43%70.57%
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.13%21.87%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.89%55.11%
FC Koln Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.42%29.58%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.39%65.61%
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 44.25%
    FC Koln 30.47%
    Draw 25.27%
Mainz 05DrawFC Koln
1-0 @ 9.83%
2-1 @ 9.1%
2-0 @ 7.47%
3-1 @ 4.61%
3-0 @ 3.79%
3-2 @ 2.81%
4-1 @ 1.75%
4-0 @ 1.44%
4-2 @ 1.07%
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 44.25%
1-1 @ 11.97%
0-0 @ 6.47%
2-2 @ 5.54%
3-3 @ 1.14%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.27%
0-1 @ 7.88%
1-2 @ 7.3%
0-2 @ 4.8%
1-3 @ 2.96%
2-3 @ 2.25%
0-3 @ 1.95%
1-4 @ 0.9%
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 30.47%

How you voted: Mainz 05 vs FC Koln

Mainz 05
57.4%
Draw
39.3%
FC Koln
3.3%
61
Head to Head
Apr 11, 2021 5pm
Gameweek 28
FC Koln
2-3
Mainz
Duda (43' pen.), Skhiri (61')
Duda (22'), Katterbach (34')
Boetius (11'), Onisiwo (65'), Barreiro (90+1')
Mwene (42')
Dec 12, 2020 2.30pm
Gameweek 11
Mainz
0-1
FC Koln

Niakhate (37'), Latza (45+1'), Onisiwo (67'), Stoger (75')
Rexhbecaj (55')
Ozcan (70'), Duda (75'), Horn (81')
Duda (76')
May 17, 2020 2.30pm
Oct 25, 2019 7.30pm
Gameweek 9
Mainz
3-1
FC Koln
Boetius (21'), Quaison (57'), Oztunali (82')
Kunde (48'), Niakhate (60')
Terodde (14')
Bornauw (41'), Hector (80')
Apr 7, 2018 2.30pm
FC Koln
1-1
Mainz
Hector (7')
Klunter (25'), Koziello (59'), Clemens (82'), Ozcan (90')
De Blasis (50')
Balogun (44'), Serdar (66'), Latza (70'), Donati (90')
Donati (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern86202972220
2RB Leipzig86201431120
3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen84312015515
4Union BerlinUnion Berlin843195415
5Freiburg85031311215
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt84221612414
7Borussia DortmundDortmund84131514113
8Stuttgart83321716112
9Werder Bremen83321416-212
10Heidenheim83141211110
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach83141113-210
12Augsburg83141219-710
13Mainz 05Mainz82331213-19
14Wolfsburg82241516-18
15Hoffenheim82241317-48
16St Pauli8125511-65
17Holstein Kiel80261023-132
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum8017722-151


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!