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China national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Oct 7, 2021 at 6pm UK
Guangxi Sports Center
Vietnam national football team

China
3 - 2
Vietnam

Zhang (53'), Lei (75', 90+5')
Shihao (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Tai Ho (80'), Linh Nguyen (90')
Truong Luong (66')

Preview: China vs. Vietnam - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between China and Vietnam, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides that are yet to get off the mark in the World Cup 2022 Asian third qualifying round meet at Sharjah Stadium on Thursday evening.

China and Vietnam have work to do if they are to have any hope of progressing to the finals, but at least one is guaranteed to leave this match with their first point.


Match preview

China's head coach Li Tie on June 7, 2021© Reuters

China find themselves in a very strong Group B - featuring heavyweights Australia and Japan, as well as in-form Saudi Arabia and Oman sides - and they did not reach the group in the most convincing fashion.

They finished second to Syria in Group A of the second qualifying round and advanced as the best runner-up, having recovered from an awful start to the campaign that saw coach Marcello Lippi quit after a 2-1 loss to Syria.

His former assistant Li Tie took over and brought about a change in fortunes, securing four consecutive wins, but his side have not been able to carry that form into the next round and have suffered back-to-back defeats.

It has been, admittedly, the toughest start possible with games against Australia and Japan - The Socceroos comfortably beat China 3-0 before The Samurai Blue edged a slightly closer contest 1-0.

Li will be determined to turn things around in the next two fixtures and build some momentum, and their next opponents probably provide the best opportunity for them to do so.

China's Xiang Ji celebrates with teammates pictured in December 2019© Reuters

Vietnam also qualified as one of the best runners-up, having finished second behind United Arab Emirates in one of the biggest stories of the second round.

The lowest-ranked team in the group began the third round with a tough trip away at Saudi Arabia and, despite producing a perfect start as star man Nguyen Quang Hai netted a third-minute opener, they ultimately lost 3-1 with 10 men after Do Duy Manh was shown a red card early in the second half.

Things did not get any easier as they then welcomed group favourites Australia and manager Park Hang-seo would have been reasonably pleased to see his side produce a disciplined performance and keep the scoreline to a very respectable 1-0.

The Golden Stars must now set about picking up some points, however.

The match against neighbours China is crucial if they are to retain any hope of bagging a qualification spot and, with a trip to Oman next week, this promising generation of Vietnamese talent will feel these are two matches in which they stand a decent chance.

China World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L

Vietnam World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L



Team News

Tyias Browning in action for Everton in 2015© Reuters

In their opening two games, China were unable to register a single shot on target and are in desperate need of Espanyol forward Wu Lei - who scored eight times in the previous round - finding his shooting boots.

He is the only man in the current squad to play his league football outside China and will surely continue to lead the line, despite the lack of goals to this point, supported by Elkeson - or Ai Kesen as the Brazilian-born forward is now known in China.

The Dragons will also have former Everton man Tyias Browning as part of a back four.

Nguyen Tien Linh was Vietnam's main source of goals in the previous round and the striker remains the spearhead of their attack. He will be hopeful of scoring, with the help of playmaker Quang Hai, against a Chinese side that conceded four times in their first two games.

Keeper Bui Tan Truong will most likely start between the sticks, as the usual number one Dang Van Lam has a shoulder injury which will keep him out for four months.

Duy Manh has served his suspension for the red card in the Saudi Arabia game and is clear to return to the Vietnam backline.

China possible starting lineup:
Yan; Wang, Browning, Li, Zhang; Hao, Jin, Wu Xi; Wu Lei, Alan, Elkeson

Vietnam possible starting lineup:
Bui; Duy Manh, Que, Chung, Vu; Xuan Truong, Phan, Tuan Anh; Quang Hai, Tien Linh, Van Toan


SM words green background

We say: China 2-1 Vietnam

Vietnam have never beaten China at senior level, having lost their last six encounters, but the Golden Stars have come a long way and head into Thursday's game far from underdogs.

Nonetheless, we are backing the Chinese side to edge a tight game and finally get their first points in the group.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a China win with a probability of 49.65%. A win for Vietnam had a probability of 25.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a China win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Vietnam win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that China would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: China vs Vietnam

China
70.5%
Draw
8.0%
Vietnam
21.4%
112
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