Orlando City will look to continue their strong start to the Major League Soccer season on Saturday, when they travel to take on Columbus Crew.
The Lions sit second in the Eastern Conference after seven matches, while their hosts have suffered back-to-back defeats after making an impressive start of their own.
Match preview
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After falling short in the MLS playoffs last season, Orlando City entered the new campaign with high hopes, and they have started relatively strongly, earning 11 points from their opening seven outings.
Following a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Los Angeles Galaxy and a draw with Portland Timbers, Oscar Pareja's side were left disappointed by a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Los Angeles FC, after Alexandre Pato and Joao Moutinho had each drawn them level in the first half.
They were able to bounce straight back last time out, though, seeing out a 1-0 win at home to Chicago Fire last weekend.
Their visitors were reduced to 10 men just before half time, and the Lions eventually took advantage on the hour mark as Ercan Kara netted the decisive goal to seal a third three-point haul of the campaign.
Now sitting second in the Eastern Conference after seven outings, Pareja's men will look to build a winning run to establish themselves at the top as the division begins to truly take shape.
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They travel to take on a Columbus Crew side keen to bounce back to winning ways after enjoying a productive start of their own.
Saturday's visitors kicked off the campaign with two victories and two draws from the first four matches, most noticeably thrashing Vancouver Whitecaps 4-0 with Miguel Berry, Derrick Etienne, Luis Diaz and Lucas Zelarayan all on the scoresheet, but they have since been handed back-to-back defeats.
Following a draw with New York Red Bulls, Caleb Porter's men hosted Nashville SC, and they were beaten 1-0 before a trip to Philadelphia Union ended in the same scoreline as Eloy Room's early own goal made the difference.
Although that has triggered a drop to seventh place in the Eastern Conference, the gap to the top end remains small at this stage of the term, and Porter's men would move back level with Saturday's visitors if they can secure a victory, while keeping a game in hand on Orlando.
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Team News
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Columbus Crew will likely remain without midfielders Isaiah Parente and Kevin Molino, as the duo continue to battle through injury issues.
The support of a lone frontman in Porter's 4-2-3-1 system is crucial, and Yaw Yeboah, Lucas Zelarayan and Derrick Etienne have all shown their quality in the final third, while experienced American international Gyasi Zardes could be brought in for an additional threat.
Jonathan Mensah and Milos Degenek have both played in every minute of MLS action so far this season, and they will again partner up in the middle of a back four.
Orlando City boast a particularly strong squad, and Pareja has a variety of options to choose from throughout the pitch, with the likes of Tesho Akindele and Junior Urso pushing for places in the starting XI.
Competition for spots in attack is particularly tough, though, with Alexandre Pato, Mauricio Pereyra and Facundo Torres all laying strong claims for starts while Ercan Kara should again lead the line after his decisive goal last time out.
Sebas Mendez and Cesar Araujo will operate at the base of midfield, with Robin Jansson and Rodrigo Schlegel shielding Peru international goalkeeper Pedro Gallese.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Moreira, Degenek, Mensah, Santos; Nagbe, Artur; Yeboah, Zelarayan, Etienne; Zardes
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Teixeira, Jansson, Schlegel, Moutinho; Mendez, Araujo; Pato, Pereyra, Torres; Kara
We say: Columbus Crew 1-2 Orlando City
Given their slightly stronger start and a squad packed with talent, we back Orlando City to take all three points at the weekend.
While they have not stood out going forward so far, Pareja's men have impressed defensively, and they certainly have what it takes to hand their hosts a defeat.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 56.32%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Orlando City had a probability of 20.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Orlando City win it was 0-1 (6.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.
