Neither side were tested in the earlier rounds of this competition, and while Fortaleza have been poor in the final third domestically this season, they have been a little sharper in that department lately.
In contrast, Ceara have not been as aggressive or potent lately given their style of play, which we believe will prove costly in this game.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 48.34%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 23.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
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