Copa Sudamericana | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 2, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estádio Serra Dourada
We said: Atletico Goianiense 2-1 Sao Paulo
Although their manager was sacked following the weekend's defeat, we think that an Atletico Goianiense side who have won all of their home games in the Copa Sudamericana this season will edge out Sao Paulo to take a narrow lead into the second leg.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 43.53% . A draw had a probability of 33.1% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 23.41% .
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.71% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (6.56%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (18.01%) , while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (12.16%) . The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Goianiense would win this match.
Result Atletico Goianiense Draw Sao Paulo 43.53% ( 0.01) 33.05% ( 0) 23.41% ( -0.01)
Both teams to score 31.71% ( -0.01)
24.64% ( -0.01) 75.36% ( 0.01)
9.52% ( -0) 90.47% ( 0)
Atletico Goianiense Goals
64.6% ( 0) 35.39% ( -0)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 27.84% ( 0) 72.15% ( -0)
49.09% ( -0.02) 50.91% ( 0.02)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 14.72% ( -0.01) 85.28% ( 0.01)
Atletico Goianiense 43.53%
Sao Paulo 23.41%
Draw 33.04%
Atletico Goianiense Draw Sao Paulo 1-0 @ 18.71% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.56% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.37% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.27% Other @ 2.9% Total : 43.53% 0-0 @ 18.01% 1-1 @ 12.63% 2-2 @ 2.22% ( -0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 33.04% 0-1 @ 12.16% 1-2 @ 4.27% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.11% ( -0) 1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.41%
How you voted: Atletico GO vs Sao Paulo
Atletico Goianiense
Draw
Sao Paulo
49
rhs 2.0
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